What will be the main battles this spring: Russia and Ukraine prepare to exchange blows –

/ world today news/ Military correspondent Alexander Kots tells about the preparation of an attack by the armed forces of Ukraine on the flanks of Bakhmut, surrounded by Russia

WILL VSU WITHDRAW TO A NEW LINE OF DEFENSE OR WILL “DRAPA TO THE DNIPER”?

In terms of information, the situation around Artemovsk today resembles the episode from “The Ordinary Miracle”. Do you remember the words of the princess to Abudlov’s character: “I’ve been chasing you for three days to tell you how much I don’t care about you!” Same with Bahmut. Already at the beginning of the year, both the Western media and the Kyiv authorities competed to talk about the importance of the fortress city, which Ukraine will not surrender under any circumstances.

Zelensky, including on February 2, I remember, said so.

And a month later, when the prospects for the defense of Artemovsk became obvious, he assured that the armed forces of Ukraine will not defend the city at all costs and to the last soldier (although what is happening now reminds me of this). The Pentagon with him, this is a surprise, in solidarity – claims that the city has no strategic importance, according to American generals, the city is not important. And even if it is lost, nothing terrible will happen to Kyiv.

It is true that not all foreign military analysts are so optimistic.

Former adviser to the head of the US Department of Defense Colonel Douglas McGregor, for example, believes that the fall of Artemovsk will start a chain reaction that will lead to the collapse of Ukrainian defenses.

„The Bakhmut story is coming to an end, and this will be the beginning of a new phase of the conflict, during which the southern front will completely collapse.” McGregor said. – The Ukrainian army is in a difficult situation, experiencing an acute shortage of food, medicine and ammunition. And the command abandoned its soldiers to the vagaries of fate.

Bloomberg believes that by losing control over Bakhmut, Kiev risks losing the entire territory of the DPR.

And former US intelligence officer Tony Shaffer, in an interview with journalist Stephen Gardner, even believes that the retreat of the armed forces of Ukraine all the way to the Dnieper will be a consequence of the settlement coming under the control of Russian troops.

What’s actually going on in town right now? What are the real consequences of the capture of Artemovsk? And when will that happen?

GENERAL SIRSKI’S FOUR RESERVES FOR THE BREAKTHROUGH TO BAHMUTH

According to the latest data, units of PMC “Wagner” control about 70% of Bakhmut. To date, we have completely liberated the eastern and northern parts of the city. Now the main battles unfold in the northwest and southwest around Artemovsk, where “the pincers” of the environment are tightened more and more tightly.

„From the top” we are fighting for the settlement of Khromovo and the village of Bogdanovka, standing on the road to Chasov Yar, “below” for Ivanovskoye, also located on the road. The resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is inhuman, because they know very well that with the loss of these settlements, the lid of the cauldron of the Bakhmut garrison will actually close.

The commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Sirsky, with manic persistence continues to assure that the defense of Bakhmut will continue and he will not withdraw the troops. You can only be so confident in one case – if there is a real plan to unblock the city. And this is possible only by hitting the flanks of the “musicians”.

As Yevgeny Prigogine, Wagner’s founder, stated, “at the end of March – beginning of April, Ukraine plans to launch a large-scale offensive and make flanking cuts to “cut off” the PMC from the main forces of the Russian Federation. Armed Forces.” According to intelligence, several strike groups were created simultaneously for this. One – in Slavyansk, the second – in Seversk, the third – in Chasov Yar and the fourth – in Konstantinovka.

Dozens of equipment and mobilized reinforcements are constantly transferred there. Some of them by “way of life” immediately sent to “The Artyom meat grinder”to replenish the depleted divisions, a part remains to form a reserve.

“BOILER”

The most dangerous situation is north of Bakhmut, from where the enemy will most likely try to strike. That is why the PMC strives to close the ring around the city as soon as possible, so that some of the fighters can turn to the outside of the “cauldron” to repel a possible breakthrough. And they hope that the units of the Russian army will cover the flanks.

The intended direction of attack is from Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. It is vital for Kyiv to break through the front line in this direction, since here behind Bakhmut passes the outer defensive contour of the Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration – along the watershed of the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal. It is located on a hill that descends towards Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

THE SLICED “CAKE”

At the same time, the very course of hostilities outlines the prospect of our hypothetical offensive. Which, however, will happen only if the “musicians” will interact actively and harmoniously with the units of the Russian army.

Now our troops are engaged in heavy fighting north of Soledar along the line Vasyukovka-Razdolovka, on which it is possible to create a bridgehead for an attack on Seversk. In the case of the development of progress from the south to the village of Rai-Aleksandrovka and from the north to Yampol, there is a prospect of encircling Seversk and the collapse of this entire defensive line that runs from here to Toretsk. Thus, we get a perspective on one side for pressing Slavyansk, and on the other – an exit to Konstantinovka.

This is the next line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which runs from south to north from Avdeyevka to the city, a symbol of the Russian spring. Given the activity around Avdeevka, a sliced ​​”cake” with several “cauldrons” appears around Druzhkovka, Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.

This does not mean that tomorrow we will wake up to a new reality, when the liberation of Donbas is already tangible. This is a wrong opinion. I worked in Artemovsk, there are no opportunities for easy breakthroughs kilometers ahead. The enemy fights literally for every stone.

However, these battles tied up the vast resources of Kyiv in the direction of Bakhmut. Ukraine is forced to transfer here the most combat-capable units to contain our advance and allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to mobilize and strengthen new lines of defense.

And the spring offensive of the enemy is on the threshold, which can be concentrated simultaneously in two directions – the Swatovo and Zaporizhzhia. However, there is every chance that in the coming months the front will gradually move away from Donetsk, whose residents, tormented by the shelling of the armed forces of Ukraine, will finally be able to breathe easier.

Translation: EU

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