What to remember from the second referendum on independence in New Caledonia?

The question was short and to the point: Do you want New Caledonia (270,000 inhabitants) to gain sovereignty and become independent? This Sunday, October 4, some 180,640 voters were called on to vote on the future of this French territory in the Pacific. This was the second such consultation in two years.

What are the results of this referendum?

The participation was massive (85.64%), to make many voters and elected officials green with envy. The no to independence won with 53.26% of the votes cast. A much closer result than two years ago. The yes to independence has increased by more than three points.

The bipolarity of the island is confirmed at the end of this election. The southern province voted almost 71% against independence. The northern province and the island province respectively voted 76% and 82% yes to independence.

How did the first consultation go in 2018?

The turnout was also massive. 81% of the 175,165 registered voters turned out to vote. The results had already been much closer than the polls expected. Caledonians voted 56.7% against independence and at 43, 3% for the yes. That is only 18,500 votes.

Did this Sunday’s vote go smoothly?

Overall yes, explains Aloïsio Sako, president of the Oceania Democratic Rally. The young people created a festive atmosphere in front of the polling stations. A feeling that the loyalists (opposed to independence) do not share at all. The latter denounce a climate of tension, intimidation of voters by young Kanaks in front of certain offices, with racist remarks. Voters were afraid to go and vote. The state has been below everything. We do not campaign during the election.

As tensions were palpable in the evening, each camp called on its supporters for peace. The polling stations have just closed. I ask everyone to keep calm, wrote Sonia Backès, president of the southern province, supporter of no to independence. I appeal to my pro-independence colleagues to do the same.

For his part, the independence party the Caledonian Union also called strongly every citizen not to be overwhelmed by emotions and to welcome the result in a pacifist atmosphere. Let us live up to this historic meeting and take care of ourselves with confidence and responsible mobilization.

What will happen now?

With the victory of the no at independence, New Caledonia remains French. The powers already transferred by the French State remain so. According to Léa Havard, lecturer in public law in New Caledonia, what will also remain is this desire for dialogue on the two sides. Discussions since the 1998 Noumea Accord are meant to be appeased. Living together in good understanding is desired by both camps. All are attached to their territory and claim the same desire to stay there, to develop it ”.An opinion however tempered by Luc Steinmetz, historian and jurist: This progress of the yes to independence will energize the positions of the separatists.

Will there be a third referendum?

Yes, if a third of the members of Congress so request, from the sixth month following the election on Sunday. This referendum, provided for in the Noumea Accord of 1998, would then deal with the same question as today.

However, for Philippe Dunoyer, the spokesperson for Caledonia together, launching into a third referendum would be a downward spiral. An opinion totally shared by Christophe Gygès and Thierry Santa, anti-independence activists: Instead, let’s get around the table for a new solution that everyone can listen to. Let’s stop the binary confrontation.

On the side of the separatists, the decision to go to the third referendumis already taken, says Rock Wamytan, Kanak customary chief. The Kanak people will never mourn their independence. He is colonized. We must give it its place. Otherwise there will never be peace , believes for its part, the Nationalist Movement for the Sovereignty of Kanaky.Charles Washetine, activist in favor of independence, calls for dialogue to get out of the status quo. A desire for dialogue also shared by the loyalists.

What is Emmanuel Macron’s reaction?

The head of state spoke, around 2 p.m. this Sunday, from the Élysée Palace. He welcomed exceptional participation in this ballot.It is a second big successful democratic meeting. Voters have spoken. For the most part, they confirmed their wish to keep New Caledonia in France. As Head of State, I welcome this mark of confidence in the Republic with a deep feeling of gratitude.

LIVE | Declaration following the second vote on the accession to independence of New Caledonia. https://t.co/cuacUzABPb

— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) October 4, 2020

But Emmanuel Macron also says he welcomes these results with humility: I hear the voices of those who are driven by the desire for independence and I want to tell them: it is with you, it is only together that we will build the New Caledonia of tomorrow. We must look to the future.

The future is the last stage of the Noumea agreement. A third referendum is possible. The future is also about preparing, whatever happens – with or without a third referendum – for the exit from the Nouméa agreement which will take place by 2022.

It is up to us all together to prepare for this future. We will also need all the political parties which, within the framework of the democratic debate, will have to draw up their vision of the future of New Caledonia. We have two years ahead of us to dialogue and imagine the future ”.

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