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What to expect from the new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz?

Back in August 2020, when the Social Democrats first offered Scholz’s candidacy, no one would have believed it, as he had only been defeated a year before in the SPD chairmanship, due not only to the party’s clear desire to see a left-wing leader, but also with the fact that the introverted pragmatist has never succeeded in winning the sympathy of ordinary social democrats.

However, Scholz, who became finance minister and vice chancellor in Merkel’s last government in 2018, seemed to many to be the only political heavyweight in the party that could be suitable for the post of head of government. In 2020, when Scholz became a candidate for the Chancellor’s office, the SPD, then the youngest partner of Merkel’s Conservatives in the so-called Grand Coalition, lagged far behind the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) in polls. ).

So for months, Scholz had to endure ridicule, as many found it difficult to believe his claims that he would win the election and become the next German chancellor. However, the stoicism with which he expanded his campaign in complete peace seems to have become the basis for Scholz’s success. In addition, unlike his rivals, the SPD candidate was able to avoid the humiliating mistakes made by his rivals during the campaign, and with the slogan “Scholz will fix it” he was able to earn a reputation as a quiet worker.

Usually unshakable

Scholz was born in Osnabrück in western Germany in 1958, but has been living in Potsdam for several years with his wife, British Ernst, as Minister for Education in the Land of Brandenburg.

9. The Chancellor of the Federal Republic demonstrates unwavering self-confidence. He has experienced many setbacks in his decades-long political career, but none of them has been able to steer the next chancellor off course in the long run. To take the defeat without pity, to stand up and continue calmly and never to doubt your actions – these seem to be Scholz’s guidelines.

Even the parliamentary commission of inquiry into the so-called “Cum-Ex” tax fraud case and the “Wirecard” scandal failed to cause significant damage to Sholc. Although Scholz did not make a good impression at the time of the commission’s interrogation, constantly claiming that he did not remember anything, the following public criticism erupted as a result of a lack of specificity.

Consistent career

Scholz’s path down the political ladder, which began in the 1970s when he joined the SPD youth organization, has been persistent and patient, and he has changed considerably during this time. In the 1980s, as vice-president of the SPD’s youth organization, Scholz became known as a radical socialist who called for “overcoming the capitalist economy.” His “too-left” views at the time prevented Sholc from becoming a leader in the party’s youth organization. However, while working as an employment lawyer for his own law firm in Hamburg, he learned a lot about how companies and independent businesses actually work.

Turning to more moderate views and giving up his long-haired long hair allowed Sholc to enter the Bundestag in 1998, and he soon became known as the most conservative wing of the SPD, and not just in economic policy.

In 2001, as Minister for the Interior of the Hamburg Regional Government, he took, for example, a strong course in combating drug trafficking and allowed the police to induce vomiting on drug couriers in order to preserve evidence. As SPD secretary-general, he helped get through the then-chancellor Gerhard Schröder’s controversial Agenda 2010 labor market reform, despite opposition from many left-wing party members.

Due to the manners of his technocratic speech, the new chancellor, who also often repeats himself, once earned the palam “Scholcomat”. Scholz himself, described by the influential Der Spiegel magazine as “the epitome of boredom in politics”, later justified himself in saying “he just has to be convincing” and “show some determination”. In an interview with Bunte magazine, the next chancellor said he had “always asked the same questions and always given the same answers”. At the same time, the politician added that he laughed “much more often than people think”.

But that is only part of the truth. Scholz is simply not one of those people who shows his emotions, and it would be hard to call him an extrovert. He always shows complete self-control, and even in times of greatest emotion, the next chancellor behaves like a British butler. People who know him well and have worked with him for a long time say that Scholz never raised his voice in the presence of them, let alone express anger. In cases where something has irritated him, the biggest thing Scholch allows is the transfer of weight from one leg to the other while his ears turn red. The last time this could be seen was during a live televised pre-election debate, when Scholz was, in his view, subjected to an unjustified attack by Conservative rival Armin Lashett.

Scholz has long been considered the most conservative of the SPD, and the decision by the current left-wing party leadership, co-chairs Saskia Eskena and Norbert Walter-Borjan, to nominate him to the SPD as chancellor was all the more striking. Eventually, the party also approved his candidacy, although he had recently rejected it as his potential leader.

When he was nominated for the post of head of government, Scholz said that his cooperation with the party leadership had always been close and harmonious. “We actually started working with each other right after the SPD co-chairs were elected, and it grew very close until I felt like they were both nominating me, and they both realized early on that they needed to nominate me,” Chancellor.

However, Scholz is making an effort to change his current behavior, knowing full well that he must now be able to address the entire German public. One week before the Bundestag elections, the next chancellor called for a vaccination against Covid-19 on one of the most popular television programs. His speech provoked a rather active reaction on social media, acknowledging to users that this time Scholz felt much more alive and accessible than usual.

Covid-19 and foreign policy

Since 2007, Scholz has held a government position almost continuously. He was first Minister of Employment and then mayor of Hamburg. In 2018, he returned to Berlin to sit as finance minister, also holding the position of vice-chancellor. It is alleged that since the last change of position, Scholz has started to look at the chancellor’s chair, and the politician’s father also said in a conversation with the newspaper “Bild” that the next politician had announced that he would become chancellor at the age of 12.

As Minister for Employment, Scholz helped prevent mass redundancies during the financial crisis by persuading companies to cut working hours while the state agreed to subsidize the maintenance of existing wages, and this method was also used during the Covid-19 pandemic.

With the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, Scholz’s influence began to grow. As finance minister, he was responsible for billions of euros in support of companies that had suffered from quarantine measures, and the politician learned to use it to bring it back to the media’s attention again and again. “We will use the bazooka to do everything we can,” the SPD politician promised in early 2020, announcing ambitious support measures.

Meanwhile, in the field of foreign policy, Scholz promises to follow the succession. The work of his government will focus on creating a “strong, sovereign Europe” that will “speak with one voice”, otherwise “we will have no influence”. As the world’s population approaches 10 billion, the number of major powers will grow and other major powers will emerge alongside China, the United States and Russia, including the new German head of government. At the same time, Scholz believes that one of the basic principles of German foreign policy is cooperation with the United States and membership in NATO.

Scholz has repeatedly emphasized that Germany is financially capable of dealing with a pandemic. By the end of 2022, Germany’s additional debt will have reached 400 billion euros, but economic growth will allow the country to cope with this burden, Scholz promised during the pre-election campaign. “No one has to worry about it, we did it once after the previous crisis in 2008 and 2009, and we’ll do it again in less than 10 years.”

However, by the end of this year, it has become clear that the pandemic is far from over and the new government may have to take on new debts to support the economy. However, in general, Scholz is considered a fiscal conservator and has insisted that in 2023 the constitutional budgetary discipline must be returned to, which is also enshrined in the coalition agreement.

However, alongside the economy, Sholc faces a number of political challenges. In addition, he will have to control a coalition of three very different parties, which Germany is experiencing at the national level for the first time in the history of the Federal Republic. In order to keep the members of his cabinet from quarreling, Scholz will have to remember what he said when he took over the leadership of the Hamburg branch of the SPD, which was then divided into many factions: “Anyone who demands leadership from me will do so.”

In general, so far he has managed to give the impression that he will be able to replace Merkel as a maintainer of stability. He even took over the gesture of his predecessor – his hands folded in the form of a diamond. Even Merkel herself has said that she will be able to “sleep peacefully” by returning her chair to Sholc.

Cool reception

At the same time, ordinary Germans do not seem to be as enthusiastic as they might see the inauguration ceremonies of the new government and the optimistic statements made by its representatives.

According to a poll by YouGov, nearly two-thirds of Germans believe Scholch will remain in the Chancellor’s office for only one term. 20% of respondents are convinced that the so-called traffic light coalition will disintegrate before the next Bundestag elections, but another 44% of respondents believe that Scholch will remain in the chancellor’s chancellor for all four years, but will not win the post of head of government again.

Only 16% of Germans predict that Scholz will remain in the post of Chancellor for a second term, but only 1.3% of respondents believe that he could remain in the chair of the government for as long as his predecessor Merkel.

Although the new chancellor has promised that his government will pursue a “policy that will have a big impact”, only 22% of Germans expect serious change. Overall, 51% of respondents believe that the “traffic light coalition” will not bring much change to the country, while 16% do not expect any change at all.

Thus, the victory of the SPD in the September elections is probably not so much Scholz’s success, but rather the failure of the Conservatives, which led to their inability to choose the right leader.

Sources: “Deutsche Welle”, AFP, DPA.

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