The mathematician Prof. Nikolay Vitanov gave brief information about the operational situation for the pandemic for May 19, 2022 in Bulgaria. He clarified that, as always, he would talk first about the pandemic and then about the war.
“You know that I can explain something patiently and many times until the explanation reaches the relevant consciousness. So let me write again.
Who does not like not to read these summaries. Don’t read them. You will not roar like Carpathian bears, you will live in peace. I still care what attention I attract. He has long held many records for covering the work of a Bulgarian scientist. So, don’t push yourself.
These summaries are for people who really want to know what’s going on with the pandemic. This is the place to learn it – I continue to be officially engaged in analysis and forecasting. Here is the place to get information about what is happening with the war.
One day this war will end and conclusions will have to be drawn on how to live after it. These conclusions must be made with a cool mind, not with the croaking and roaring from which the Carpathian bears flee in terror. And not with reviews like: But the fact that the main battle will be in Donbass and a fourth-grader can say that.
Yes, yes, but Vitanov said it when the war started. You know, the numbers – that’s what I could say, don’t work. Well, if you could say that, why didn’t you say it then, a reviewer from the cafe? Because you couldn’t say that. Poor amateurism floods Bulgaria and this is the main problem.
Well, don’t read, keep your nerves, Vitanov will not be harmed by not reading it. Let only those who really want to know what’s going on read.
And now essentially.
Check the pandemic situation today
1. The Blue Summer scenario is stable – day 4. This scenario is – we have a quiet summer.
2. The general situation – Modified Omicron fails to ignite diffuse spread And so for 49 days.
Let’s see with numbers what the current situation is.
2. The basic reproductive number – today is 0.44.
The value is a record low.
It is below 1, so the scope of the infection continues to shrink.
“Blue Summer” is unshakable, the scope of the infection is shrinking rapidly.
3. The super fire check – No superfire.
Let’s look at some control numbers for today from the diffuse distribution index
For the country – 0.12
Sofia-city – 0.18
Plovdiv – 0.08
Burgas – 0.08
Varna – 0.05
Along the southern borders
Blagoevgrad – 0.14
Kardzhali – 0.13
Smolyan – 0.21
Haskovo – 0.15
Yambol – 0.12
We know:
1. Critical value for ignition of diffuse propagation – 1.00
2. Over 1.00 – diffuse spread
3. Under 1.00 – Diffuse spread stops or does not exist at all.
Today, as expected – no problems. The indices are far below 1, there is no diffuse distribution. The sinister professor’s plan to block the spread of the modified Omicron by stopping the diffuse spread works. It’s been 49 days.
For information – the indices in several other areas
Kyustendil – 0.08
Lovech – 0.07
Montana – 0.16
Pazardzhik – 0.09
Pernik – 0.18
I drive in alphabetical order, in 5 areas every day. As you can see, there are no problems. As sung in the song – the moon continues to sleep. Kovid – the crisis is over. Well, let there be at least one crushed crisis of all that has gotten on our heads.
3. Check for overcrowding of hospitals. Are there overcrowded hospitals? There is no. Things are under control.
The health care system is spinning its chains and whistling about the Kovid crisis. The occupancy of the beds is tens of times below the maximum capacity. Dozens of times and continues to decline.
4. Check for total lockdown. A total lockdown?
There will be none. I wrote to you a long time ago – tighten the season at sea, summer will be calm. Here, we entered the “Blue Summer” scenario according to plan.
5. Mortality check. You know, the goal was to increase the number of days the dead would be single digits. The number will increase.
But slowly.
6. Conclusion of the inspection – Even today, 49 days after the end of the epidemic, the situation is calm. “Blue Summer” is a stable, health system
copes with the problems, the goal – to keep the summer calm, is being achieved more and more.
The diffuse spread is extinguished, the pathetic attempts of the modified Omicron to ignite it fail to one.
And they will still fail. The extent of the infection has shrunk at a record pace. Forecast – this will continue. As Vitanov said, even the children from the kindergarten can say that, right?
A small detail – he Vitanov as he says and pours two tons of numbers for proof.
7. There are no changes in the maps. Today – the risk map.
There are 26 areas in green and 2 that are not. But even there the risk decreases. The Blue Summer scenario is stable.
This is the sinister plan of the sinister professor – the people to spend the summer in peace without problems from the coronavirus. We’re waiting for the Sherlock Holmes to come out of the cafe and start ruining the sinister plan.
Now for the war.
But Vitanov did not understand anything. Well, he doesn’t understand why you’re reading it. I’ll tell you why. Because Vitanov’s analyzes reflect the situation well. And they reflect the situation well, because Vitanov does not bite propaganda.
You do not like what Vitanov writes. Well don’t read it. What do you read and then roar so that the Carpathian bears run through your head in fear. Don’t read.
Vitanov does not care how famous he will be – I wrote that I already have a lot of records for covering a Bulgarian scientist. Read these summaries only to those who find them useful. Let others read what they see fit.
1. We have already agreed – the war will be long and slow. Why? As a consequence of the principled enslavement of Hacken, a scenario of slow change of circumstances has stabilized. Therefore.
2. Daily inspection of offensives and counter-offensives.
The Russian offensive. The main goal at the moment – Donbass, the criterion for success – the capture of Kramatorsk. The criterion is not met. No large boiler is expected, but small ones are expected. Boiler 1 – Severodonetsk – Lisichansk – almost closed.
Number of the Ukrainian group there – 1 division.
Heavy fighting is expected, especially for Lisichansk.
The Russians are making slow progress in the Donbass and no one denies it.
Surrender of the Azov Regiment in Mariupol. So far – over 1,500 people. I expected less. It came out a whole cauldron.
You know I overestimated them and I thought they would fight to the death.
Ukrainian counter-offensive. Goal – to stop the Russian offensive in Donbass. Criterion – capture of Raisins. The criterion is not met. There are no cutlets.
Western arms supplies have so far kept the Ukrainian army in an upright position. The losses are not small, however – from one-third to one-half battalion tactical group per day. The counter spins fast, which is not good. That is why the general mobilization continues.
Conclusion – the Ukrainians fail to repel the Russian offensive in Donbass. The Russians have the advantage. It is expected that this advantage will be maintained until the end of the week and beyond.
Ukrainians urgently need to fill the gap in the Donbass fronts. The Russian takeover of settlements far behind the defensive lines along Izyum shows that the situation there is serious and the Ukrainian division in Severodonetsk and Lisichansk is in great danger.
I still did not understand what exactly was taken in the counter-offensive near Kharkov. What is happening with this counteroffensive? The Ukrainian side claims that it continues to hold the initiative. However, this statement shows that things smell like something. Let me see.
3. The propaganda war. In the warring countries, the situation is stable – the peoples are still well caught in the grip of propaganda. This scenario is not expected to change until the end of the week, and beyond.
In our country, the scenario of failed pro-Ukrainian propaganda is stable. How to fix this – tips from THAT MAN (quote from THAT MAN, day five, not Bismarck)
..War allows the solution of a whole series of problems that could never be solved in normal times …..
Short comment – That’s right, war strongly changes the trajectories of social systems and this creates a favorable opportunity to solve many problems. For example, pro-Ukrainian propagandists in our country can use the war to reduce pro-Russian sentiment in our country. Quite a clumsy job, watching what they do.
Act, the war will end and social systems will emerge from favorable trajectories to reduce pro-Russian sentiment. What will remain will be high prices.
The people are not simple and are already openly dissatisfied, even on television. Get the social system out of this attractor of failed pro-Ukrainian propaganda. I wrote to you – this is the test.
You see – I support pro-Ukrainian propagandists with intellectually proven working concepts. I hope they get married. Will they spin? We have a test – the attractor must be taken out of the pool of attracting anti-Ukrainian skepticism. If so, they are married. If not – they are not married.
And finally “Bismarck, of course.” Some are shaking with anger that I know Bismarck well. I know him, I have studied him for years. And so I write to you again: Bismarck is the hill from which you can look at this war and understand what it is.
Here is today’s quote from him
… Compared to writing, the game of jump-mare is quite a solid activity ….
What Bismarck tells us here – that a lot of people turn to serious writers and analysts and the result is of the type – a pot of grapes. You need to choose what you read, Bismarck tells us. Have you heard my yurts and my reviewers from Gank’s Cafe – Bismarck tells you not to read Vitanov. Choose, well, read something else. Vitanov reads Bismarck. Because Bismarck is a recognized authority. In Russia and other things. What other things? Well, on how the state is organized. For example:
One and only one person should be responsible for each task.
Put this into action in Bulgaria to see what happens.
Okay, enough for today.
So, we have to see what will happen.
I wish you health and success and let the virus surround you. And let the war surround you “, wrote Prof. Vitanov in his personal Facebook profile.
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