What the new phase of the war in Ukraine means for Belarus – DW – 11/26/2024

War in Ukraine has reached a certain levelsome analysts say. United States permitted Ukraine strikes with long-range American missiles at targets on Russian territory, Putin said about using a new weapon. How a new stage in the war could affect Belarus, which is in Russia included in his nuclear doctrine and where regularly “Shaheds” fly in? DW asked military experts from Austria, Germany and Poland about this.

The situation in the area is not out of control

Colonel, officer of the General Staff of the Austrian Army, head of one of the departments of the Military Academy in Vienna and military historian Markus Reisner, in an interview with DW, notes that over the last week, that there have been steps towards an increase. . “But these measures were still balanced, so this increase has not gotten out of control yet,” he said.

Discussing Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine, Reisner notes that this news has not been seen in the West, unlike Russia has launched a new ballistic missile And cable break in the Baltic Sea.

Liviu Horovitz, a researcher at the German Foundation for Science and Politics, believes that the inclusion of Belarus in nuclear doctrine is an expected consequence of Russia’s decision to install tactical nuclear weapons there in Belarus. “On the one hand, these actions provide an additional level of confidence in Minsk, it should give the Belarusian authorities peace of mind, although it is difficult to say whether this is really the settlement of the authorities bilateral relations between Minsk and Moscow”, says the German expert.

Are there Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus?

It is far too late to include Belarus in Russia’s nuclear doctrine,” says Konrad Muzyka, a Polish military analyst and director of Rochan Consulting. “We only have political confirmation that Russia has extended its nuclear umbrella to Belarus, but this does not significantly affect the situation, because that is even earlier Russia said it has established its nuclear weapons in Belarus“.

Nevertheless, the presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus still raises doubts among experts. On November 24, the association of former security officers of Bypol released a study claiming that the country still does not have nuclear weapons. In addition, in June 2024 about the lack of “positive visual evidence” the use of Russian nuclear warheads in Belarus SIPRI experts said.

“What we know for sure is that there has been some movement and modernization in Belarus in areas where missiles or artillery shells were previously stored. This upgrade was similar to what the Russians did when they upgraded their own nuclear storage facilities. continue until the end use of nuclear warheads in BelarusI don’t know, this is not in open sources,” says Conrad Music.

Modern wars are also being applied in the information field, notes Markus Reisner. “Each side is trying to make sure its narrative is in control. their agenda.”

How will a new phase in the war affect Belarus?

How will the situation in the region affect Belarus now? The Polish expert does not expect a Russian attack on one of the NATO countries while the United States troops are in Europe. As for Ukraine, the country, in his assessment, cannot now escalate the conflict horizontally.

“Belarusian-Ukrainian the limit is mined and strongly fortified. Belarus supported the Russian invasion in 2022, but the level of support has now decreased and is largely limited to the supply of artillery weapons, as well as Shaheed’s occasional visits to Belarus. Apart from this, nothing special is happening,” said Conrad Muzyka.

When it comes to involving Russia, we should not forget that Belarus gives Russia a theoretical opportunity to bring its military systems as close as possible to Western Europe, which ‘ notes the military historian Reisner. “The Russians always show that they need the north-east of Ukraine to avoid threats to Moscow, because that’s where the drones flying to Moscow take gone the same as Belarus – it can be used as a risk factor,” believes Reisner.

In terms of attacks on Belarus itself, as well as directly Belarusian military participation in the conflictexperts rate both scenarios as unlikely. Belarus can only be attacked as a retaliatory strike after a Russian attack. “If Russian long-range weapon systems are located on the territory of Belarus, then in the event of a larger escalation they could become a target for the West, that is, if the first attack comes from Russia, ” – says an expert from Austria.

Minsk does not play an important role in the security architecture

The inclusion of Belarus in Russia’s nuclear doctrine is unlikely to have a major impact on the West’s view of the country: “The relationship between Belarus and the West is not improving at all now, and it will not able to be influenced by such a small factor,” said German Expert Liviu Horowitz

Konrad Muzyka reminds that Belarus is seen as a young partner of Russia: “If something needs to be resolved, Western countries will talk to Moscow, not Minsk clearly trying to position itself as an important player in discussing the war in Ukraine, but I do not think that the international position of Belarus is strong enough to play an important role in the security architecture of Central and Eastern Europe. ”

Colonel Reisner compares the current situation to a chess match between Russia and the West: some steps of escalation are visible, “which we hope will lead to a point where they will go from escalating again to worsen. ” “The reaction of the West will depend on whether Belarus will fight shoulder to shoulder with Russia against the West – then the country will be considered just a puppet of the Kremlin supporting Russia Anyway, we must understand “There are only so many steps the West can take when it comes to strategic decisions,” he said.