What the lockdown means economically

The number of corona cases in Switzerland is increasing dramatically. The first cantons have already tightened the reins of measures significantly. Swiss companies are prepared for a second wave, but a second lockdown would have dramatic consequences for them.

However, today’s situation is not comparable to that in March, said Rudolph Minsch, chief economist at Economiesuisse, to AWP. The companies have now implemented well-functioning protection concepts and are therefore generally well prepared for the second wave.

Protection concepts continuously updated

The companies also know what to do to curb the spread of the coronavirus in the workplace. And as soon as new scientific knowledge about the pandemic becomes available, they will do their best to incorporate it into their protection concepts.

In this context, the home office has become the standard in many companies. They have adapted their processes in such a way that the employees are productive from home and can exchange digital ideas with all other employees.

He explicitly emphasizes the value of this measure. “The Federal Council’s request to work from home is a very targeted measure, because a second lockdown must be avoided at all costs,” warns the economist.

At the same time it is important that educational institutions, especially kindergartens and primary schools, remain open. If the parents are in the home office and the children are at home at the same time, you just get in each other’s way.

But what does the second wave mean for the Swiss economy as a whole? According to Martin Neff, chief economist at Raiffeisen Bank, the outbreak of the second corona wave in Europe could actually cause nasty surprises.

“Switzerland’s economic output is expected to shrink again in the fourth quarter. The recovery could take a lot longer than experts expected, ”he says.

The consequences of a mini-lockdown are in no way comparable to those of a (temporary) company closure due to summer vacation. Because the management of a company can plan such a step months in advance, adds Minsch from Economiesuisse. Accordingly, a lockdown would cause great social and economic damage. Specifically, many companies are likely to run into financial difficulties. While many companies only had short-term liquidity problems in the spring, in such a case they would also be confronted with long-term payment difficulties.

Equity is melting

On the one hand, the corona loans from spring are often already exhausted and regular loans are much more difficult to obtain, especially in industries with low profit margins. On the other hand, companies’ equity is currently melting “like snow in the sun” day after day.

Companies with high fixed costs are particularly affected by these problems. They could only slowly change their business model. According to Economiesuisse, the risk of insolvency is particularly high in sectors such as the catering, hotel and machine industries.

And in the events sector too, the problems are likely to be significant. Ticketcorner is representative of this branch. “The event and concert industry has been in an exceptional situation since the outbreak of the pandemic in March. Since then she has learned to deal with the situation, ”said Stefan Epli, Head of Communication at AWP.

Fortunately, the business model of his company is not fundamentally called into question due to Corona. In some areas, such as ski ticketing, he even expects a significant increase in online sales. Looking ahead, he remains optimistic and says: Live concerts will stay. A survey of 40,000 of his customers carried out this summer confirmed that consumers regretted the lack of concerts and that digital alternatives are no substitute for a live event.

High recovery claims

It looks more dramatic in the travel industry. Many of the large providers have expressed concern about AWP. The Hotelplan Group, for example, had to cancel trips worth over a billion francs during the pandemic. The group will lose several hundred million francs in sales, said spokeswoman Tanja Pöll. sda

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