A guest contribution by Hüseyin Yildirim, CEO of AET Aviation Training & Consulting.
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Since the outbreak of the Corona crisis, hardly a week has passed in which not one airline after the other has announced bad news. But comparatively few bankruptcies are still among them. However, many bankruptcies are likely to be postponed when you consider how many airlines have to take out loans in order to survive the Corona crisis. This includes many airlines that were previously barely profitable. It can therefore be assumed that these carriers will not be able to pay off the additional financial burden in the long term in the form of interest and that significantly more airlines will slide into bankruptcy in the coming months and years.
How quickly air traffic returns to its pre-crisis level depends on how the travel behavior of passengers develops. Various economic experts are of the opinion that business travelers in particular will fly less. In return, more private travelers are expected in percentage terms. Nobody knows at the moment whether the forecasts of IATA and the various airlines will really come true. However, with a lot of lobbying, they are trying to quickly regain the trust of passengers so that the travel volume stabilizes again quickly.
The direct consequences for pilots
A long-term decrease in flight connections has a chain of negative consequences for the entire aviation sector. For jobs in the cockpit, the reduction in aircraft not only means that fewer pilots are required. No, but also that current first officers will stay on the right for longer and many previous captains also have to apply for a co-pilot job in order to fly at all again.
In addition, there are many trainers and examiners who are no longer needed because little or no training takes place for pilots. Not to be forgotten are the job cuts at flight attendants, suppliers, aircraft manufacturers, leasing companies and aircraft financiers. Regardless of which region you are in. Only the cargo sector currently looks relatively stable compared to the passenger sector. However, this can change very quickly if more “belly cargo” capacities are available again and the entire economy suffers in the long term. Especially after the corona measures by the governments are stopped. Only then will the real consequences for the economy become apparent.
This trend will be more true of certain aircraft types than others. If you take a look at which types are mainly being phased out by the various airlines, then future prognoses can be derived as to which type ratings will be relatively less or more valuable in the future. In general, one can say that airlines around the world are mainly parting with their four-engine aircraft – such as the Airbus A380. Accordingly, it will be particularly difficult for all those pilots who have such a type rating and now lose their job to find accommodation.
The main victims are the young pilots
It will be particularly difficult for the current student pilots and all those who have just successfully completed their commercial pilot training. Unlike in other professions and training courses, the commercial pilot’s license expires if it is not maintained through several exams every year. As long as you don’t have an employer, you have to pay for it yourself. So what can someone do who is finishing flight school right now?
The answer: Find any job where he earns enough money to pay for his training plus license maintenance costs. Ideally, it’s another aviation job. We have published a few lesser-known options in our free guide “Pilots Corona QRH 2020”. In addition, I would like to encourage everyone to learn something else on the side and to create a second mainstay or at least acquire a qualification independently of flying.
After more than 10 years as an airline pilot, I have still not lost my fascination for flying and am still passionate about my job. However, there is hardly an occupation that is so volatile and therefore requires a great deal of flexibility. At the same time, a pure pilot’s license does not qualify you for any activity other than piloting aircraft. That’s why I personally see the pilot’s license as a kind of driver’s license. No more and no less.
Conclusion
Therefore, it is my advice, regardless of whether you are a completed flight student or an experienced pilot, to continue training and acquire further qualifications. Because nobody can say at the moment when aviation will return to pre-crisis levels. It could take 3, 5 or 10 years to get there. Your qualifications alone determine what job opportunities are offered to you during this time.
Guest contributions on AviationNetOnline reflect the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily have to correspond to the views of the editors.
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