The new crown pneumonia is pandemic. In order to return to the UK to study as soon as possible, Chinese girl Evelyn Wu received the Chinese new crown vaccine at her own expense, which is still in the experimental stage. Even though the vaccine’s efficacy is unknown, she said she “trusted China and trusted the government.”
The new crown vaccine competition has now entered the sprint stage. Western countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom have begun mass vaccination. The United States has set a goal of vaccinating 100 million people in more than three months, so as to clear up the epidemic as soon as possible and restart the economy.
Although China has controlled the epidemic early, this has indirectly led to the release of vaccine test data at a slower pace than Europe and the United States. The US media even stated that the Chinese vaccine will not be officially launched in the domestic market until April 2021. Coupled with the large population of China, the speed and extent of vaccine popularization may form an “immunity gap” with the United States and Europe.
China’s own vaccine data has not been released for a long time, mainly because there are few existing cases of new crown in the country. It is very difficult for researchers to find people who have been diagnosed after vaccination to calculate the effective rate, which prevents the Chinese test from obtaining data. In fact, when the number of infections in the UK dropped sharply in the middle of the year, Oxford University vaccine researchers also encountered this problem.
Expose why China’s vaccine data is not available late and effective is calculated like this
The U.S. epidemic seems to be about to turn for the better, and universal vaccination has already begun last week. US President-elect Biden stated that 100 million doses of vaccine will be prepared within 100 days of taking office in January next year, and 50 million people will be vaccinated (one person needs two doses).
Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, and his team calculated that if the vaccine chain in the United States is operating smoothly, 50 million people are vaccinated in 100 days, and about half of the rest of the population are willing to vaccinate, then the US epidemic will begin in the third quarter of next year. An inflection point will be ushered in, and the R0 value will drop below 1, which means that less than one person will be infected per patient and the epidemic will begin to be controlled.
According to a poll released by Gallup at the beginning of the month, 63% of Americans are willing to vaccinate, a significant rebound from the 50% low in September.
According to these data, if all goes well, the number of people vaccinated in the United States will reach 200 million by the end of next year. In addition, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of the United States indicates that the number of people who have actually been infected with the new crown virus can reach 10 times the number of confirmed cases, and these people have certain immunity to the virus. Under this, the US population of more than 300 million will be able to basically achieve the ultimate goal of herd immunity by the end of 2020 and early 2021.
U.S. media revealed that China’s vaccine launch roadmap in April next year is the key
This brings challenges to China. Although China has already contained the epidemic, and the people have little demand for vaccination in a short period of time, in the medium and long term, the Chinese population may face considerable immune pressure.
The total number of confirmed diagnoses in China is much smaller than that in the United States and Europe, and the number of people infected with the virus who are naturally immunized is also much smaller. China’s large population will also pose a test for all people to vaccinate. As a result, China and the United States and Europe may form an immunity gap and fall behind on the road to herd immunity.
The National Health Commission predicted in October that China’s domestically produced vaccines could produce 610 million doses this year, and the output could increase to more than 1 billion doses next year. More than 1.6 billion doses of vaccines can vaccinate 800 million people in two years. The number is indeed impressive, but it accounts for less than 60% of China’s 1.4 billion population. This means that China’s strict prevention strategy against the epidemic must be maintained at least until…
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[Fulltextforsubscribers:Chineseandforeignwide-anglelens——China has advantages and worries in the new vaccine battle between China and the United States】
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Author: Lian Zhaofeng
Column name: China and foreign countries
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