The US House of Representatives no longer has a Speaker. Chairman Kevin McCarthy has been voted out, with the cooperation of his radical party colleagues. “In the short term, there is a threat of chaos,” predicts foreign journalist Maarten Rabaey.
How did eight Republicans get to vote out their own party member?
“Kevin McCathy, as Speaker of the House, has been under fire from the radical right flank within the Republican Party from the start. He also needed fifteen attempts to be elected, at which time it was already clear that he would face a difficult term.
“It has clashed with that radical flank several times in recent months, but the last straw was last week. The Republicans wanted to block the US budget, after which the US threatened to end up in a shutdown. That would leave all federal government departments in the US without money.
“McCarthy has chosen country above party: he has compromised with President Biden to keep the government running until November 17. The radical flank has been held heavily against him for this. With Matt Gaetz as leader, they submitted a motion of no confidence that was voted on last night. The Democrats also voted against McCarthy. That may seem strange because they reached a compromise together last week, but for electoral reasons they could not save him.”
Is this a victory for the Democrats? Or have they just made that radical flank stronger?
“This is certainly not a victory, this is a loss for American politics. The succession battle can entail many risks. Because who will be the new Speaker? If that becomes a consensus candidate who tries to pick up the pieces and who strives for compromise, we will have a continuation of the current situation. But the radical flank has now given a clear signal that they have decision-making power. If the new Speaker follows that hard line, the Democrats will have a problem for several issues.
“It is still too early to say who it will be, but Jim Jordan is mentioned, a hardline Republican from Ohio who is behind the investigation into Joe Biden. The current Republican faction chairman, Steven Scalise from Louisiana, would also be a candidate.
“In any case, the new Speaker will want to draw attention to his own agenda, and there is a risk that obstructionism will mainly be pursued. The more they can block the Democrats’ governance, the more they also sabotage Biden’s agenda.”
How should this proceed?
“This is really historic, such an impeachment has never happened before. Moreover, it is really fast: McCarthy was chairman for just under nine months. This is uncharted territory, but an interim chairman has now been appointed in Patrick McHenry, so the functioning of the House is not jeopardized.
“There is a chance that the internal battle of the Republicans will now be fought out on the streets and that will also have an impact on the Republican primaries. There have always been different factions in the party, but under Trump they were all still in line. Now that party is really in danger of falling apart.
“This also reflects negatively on Trump. He appears to have lost control of his bickering House faction. You could say that while the father is in the dock, the children are turning the House upside down. The question is whether voters will appreciate that in 2024. We also saw in the midterms that the most fanatical Trump supporters were no longer re-elected.
“In the short term, chaos threatens, but in the long term, this internal rift may change the face of American politics for the better. On the one hand, this makes governing difficult, but on the other hand, there is now another internal ideological debate beyond the Trump line and party lines. Journalist Anne Applebaum from The Atlantic describes it this way: ‘The US now has a multi-party system that requires coalitions between parties to create a stable government, as in many European countries. American politicians just don’t know it yet.’”
How does the average American feel about this?
“At the moment this is mainly a political game, but if there is no new chairman before November 17, or if the radical wing seizes power and cannot compromise on the budget, a shutdown will follow. Then no federal government service can spend money anymore.
“The Americans must really hope for a compromise, otherwise many citizens across the country will be left behind. Ordinary Americans who work for a federal government service will no longer even receive wages.”
What does this mean for US support for Ukraine?
“The Republicans already managed to block a tranche of Ukraine aid last weekend and we will see such scenarios more often in the future. Even in the Senate, where things are more moderate under faction leader Mitch McConnell, you feel that the existing support is crumbling. The moderate Republicans are thinking of a way out: they would ask for more support for Mexican border control in exchange for support for Ukraine. We do not yet know whether the radical wing will accept that.
“The war eats money. Ideally, a support package will be approved now that will last until after the elections. But Ukraine is better off assuming that there will be less American support, as it is expected that McCarthy’s successor will be forced into a position to concede less than his predecessor. The succession battle will therefore be a nail-biter for Zelensky in the coming weeks and months, but also for Europe.”
