From whether a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine will happen at all, to whether Ukraine can defend itself and, as it turns out, even win this unequal war.
As a consequence, it is worth helping Ukraine, guided not only by humanitarian and solidarity considerations, but also by geopolitical ones. As the war enters its second year and, according to logic, even a step closer to its end, it is safe to say that we are waiting for a discussion that probably promises less consensus, starting with the most important one – which should be treated as a victory not only for Ukraine, but also for the whole of Europe and the point of view of the Western world. And here, first of all, the issue of territories will definitely dominate, that is, when some territorial borders are reached, a general idea of victory would emerge (in other words, if Crimea is not conquered, there can be a question of long-term peace for Ukraine and its Western allies).
And the question of the outcome of the war, which would promise lasting peace, is inextricably linked with the question of what the future Russia will be like after this war ends. It is already clear that Ukraine’s allies are afraid of instability in this huge territory, where one of the development scenarios is also a split, which creates the risks of many ethnic conflicts and not only (and there is nothing new in this world – let’s remember the West’s concerns about the consequences of the collapse of the USSR). But the question about the future of Russia can be rephrased in another way – to what internal turbulence must this war lead Russia to, in order for its war machine to stop. And can Russia, in which the lives of Russians are not valued higher than cannon fodder, lose on the battlefield at all?
It is widely said that the outcome of this war will be decided right on the battlefield. From the point of view of Ukraine (and we, the Baltics, are on the same front here with the Ukrainians), only an outcome decided on the battlefield guarantees long-term peace with Kyiv’s terms, anywhere outside the battlefield even compromises reached in the diplomatic circles promise only a truce and freezing of the conflict, and while Russia will not be defeated on the battlefield, it will do everything so that any solution to the conflict does not promise peace for long, but allows Moscow to keep the conflict warm.
It is clear that behind the scenes these debates are not only already taking place, but every step of the West in support of Ukraine depends on a common understanding of these issues. Consensus on whether a Ukrainian victory is the desired outcome appears to have been reached, but the question of what a Russian defeat should look like may yet bring us new discoveries. Therefore, it is important that the debate takes place openly.
