PKO BP’s AgroNawigator released today includes, among others: forecasts for food prices in 2023. Prove it this year there is a possibility of a decrease in the prices of some products.
“Taking into account the supply and demand conditions in the grain market, we estimate that further price decreases are a more likely scenario than their increases. The average purchase price of grain in 2023 could range from -15% to / yy +1% y/y The market will continue to adjust to wartime conditions and the weakening of demand linked to the economic slowdown will be a factor influencing the price drop.
– reported in AgroNawigator.
Economists have established that a smaller supply of grains will keep their prices at a high level. They added that it will also depend on geopolitical conditions, e.g. situation in Ukraine.
PKO BP analysis shows that even in 2023 they are likely further price reductions on the rapeseed market – mainly under the influence of falling demand resulting from the economic slowdown. A more satisfactory seed balance in the 2022/23 season is significant support for the decline scenario, but rapeseed stocks will remain at a relatively low level.
It has been indicated that this year milk can get more expensive.
“We expect the average milk price to change in the range of -1% y/y to +10% y/y in 2023, although the price increases will largely affect the first half of 2023, and more likely the second half of 2023. 2023. there are already price drops. The stabilization of production at the main world exporters in 2023 argues in favor of maintaining a relatively high level of quotations on the milk market”
– analysts evaluate.
But meat should be cheaper. According to AgroNawigator, the average purchase price of livestock in 2023 will be at least 8% lower. y/y According to the authors of the study, the decline will be a consequence of a reduction in supply pressure (mainly in the world, but also in the EU, among others due to the improvement in the income situation of producers) and a decrease in demand in relation to the expected economic slowdown.
“We expect it the average purchase price of poultry in 2023 will be slightly higher than in 2022 (variation in the range from -4% to +6% y/y). H1 In 2023, prices will decrease on an annual basis, but the decline in production will keep them at a high level. A high level of inflation and a slowing economy will be the factors that will contribute to a decline in consumption. Poultry could gain against more expensive pork and beef during the slowdown”
– indicated the analysts of PKO BP.
According to them, pork could become more expensive, by about 2-11%. compared to 2022, but at the same time the analysis indicates that in the second half of the year prices could fall by 4-15%. This will result from a decline in feed prices, which will ease cost pressures in livestock production, but sharp increases in energy prices and high market uncertainty will halt possible large changes in supply until at least the end of the first quarter of 2023. Expected economic slowdown will negatively impact pork consumption, economists predict.
“The increase in the share of fruit destined for processing and the increase in fruit storage costs, despite the reduction in export sales, could be reflected in lower apple stocks (y/y) in the next months of 2023. We believe that an above-seasonal increase in apple prices is possible under such circumstances, which could lead to higher inflation in the fruit category in Q2 2023.
– declared in the analysis of PKO BP.
The authors of AgroNawigator indicated that in the first half of 2023 they are possible further price increases on the fruit and vegetable market. High demand on third-party markets and rising storage costs could contribute to a reduction in supply in the coming months. Lower production of undercover vegetables, due to rising heating costs, will support higher prices, although imported vegetables will continue to be a factor inhibiting growth, the bank’s analysts believe.
Source: niezalezna.pl, PAP
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