/ world today news/ Against the background of the EU’s routine statements about its intention to impose new sanctions in response to the planned deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, Trump‘s statement in the style of “Biden jumped, the US is on the verge of a nuclear apocalypse” seems unnatural panicked.
The exaggerated nervousness of the 45th and likely candidate for the 47th president of the United States may be due to the acuteness of domestic political confrontation in America and the attempt to unofficially start the campaign early to secure a lead among potential Republican candidates.
But there is still a lot of time before the primaries and the “caucuses”. Moreover, from the point of view of winning the support of Americans who are used to their politicians talking about the greatness and invulnerability of America, this move is highly questionable. So it looks like Trump is really worried. And there is a reason.
In principle, Russia will not put so many nuclear warheads in Belarus. In order to manage them, it is planned to train the crews of 6 aircraft, as well as foresee the possibility of equipping missiles with nuclear warheads on several “Iskander” complexes.
It is logical to assume that the amount of combat units sufficient to provide a full volley of a division, plus ten to twelve air-based charges, will be stored on the territory of Belarus.
Nuclear warheads are a priority target for a nuclear strike, so it would be too presumptuous to assume that they would be able to fire twice. In any case, when I served during the time of the USSR in the same Belarus on the medium-range mobile missile system RSD-10 Pioner (predecessor of the current Poplars and Yars), no one planned the possibility of a second volley of the regiment.
It was assumed that if by some miracle he managed to avoid an enemy strike, then he would simply be reorganized into a motorized rifle unit. I think that now the assessment of the possibility of a second nuclear strike from the same complex is unlikely to increase.
That is, Trump was afraid of 20-30 nuclear charges, on carriers that are not able to reach not only the USA, but even Germany. The “Iskanders” lack the declared range – 500 km, and the planes (which are too few) will be shot down over the territory of Poland.
It seems that there is nothing to fear if Russia has carriers of nuclear charges (the same Iskanders and aircraft), as well as ships of the Baltic Fleet with “Caliber” in Kaliningrad, from where they will definitely reach Berlin and even Paris. In addition, there could be many times more potential nuclear warheads in one salvo than would be placed in Belarus.
In fact, the nuclear weapons located in Belarus make it possible to reliably cover the strike capabilities of tactical missiles and front-line aviation, in addition to the previously available capabilities, the territories of southern and southwestern Poland (Western Galicia and Southern Silesia), as well as the territory of Ukraine in the west from the Rivne-Vinitsa line.
Everything else, including central and southeastern Ukraine, northern, central, and eastern Poland, as well as the entire Baltic region, is covered by mainland Russia and the territory of Kaliningrad Oblast.
And for Romania and Moldova there is Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet. Finally, if anything flies to the US, it will be ballistic missiles from submarines, as well as intercontinental missiles from Siberian silos.
Knowing exactly which region will be “affected” by the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, we can assume that Trump is so worried. We may find out what this knowledge is that disturbs the sleep of the 45th President of the United States.
First, the very fact of deploying Russian nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus complicates aggression against that country. No one will allow the enemy to capture nuclear warheads. Therefore, any enemy breakthrough that threatens to overrun them will trigger an immediate limited nuclear strike.
Meanwhile, from 2020 The USA considers the territory of Belarus as a potential place to provoke the Polish-Russian conflict.
They work on the principle: Poland and the Baltic states under some pretext attacked Belarus, Russia supported an ally, and now, dear Russians, you will get an additional front from the Pripyat Marshes to the Baltic Sea and do not thank.
Now it should be borne in mind that such an adventure is almost guaranteed to lead to a nuclear strike on the territory of the aggressor, and these are NATO countries and the USA, or they will have to keep quiet and pretend that it was only possible or start a nuclear war with Russia.
Second, the new possibilities for nuclear coverage of the territories of both Galicias (Polish and Ukrainian) threaten the very regions where the Polish army should be deployed if Warsaw decides to invade western Ukraine.
If previously the Poles could count on the effect of the threat of Russia with a fresh, well-armed army of 200 thousand, which could go to the aid of a defeated Ukraine, then twenty to thirty nuclear warheads from a new positional area will instantly turn the Poles into radioactive ash, and dozens of western Ukrainian and Polish cities in ruins.
In this case, the total one-time losses of troops and population would clearly approach a million, and probably well over a million.
And again, the US should either respond in some way (start a nuclear war with Russia?) or pretend that nothing terrible happened, instead of completely demoralizing its European allies. In this case, even the Swedes and Finns can withdraw applications from NATO without waiting for Erdogan’s favor.
Trump is a very informed man. People who sympathize with him work in the State Department, in the Army headquarters and in the CIA. Let them be far fewer than the Biden-supporting staffers, but they have access to sensitive information.
Trump’s sharp, almost panicked reaction to the Russian gesture, which does not actually change the balance of power in the European theater of war, but only slightly increases Russia’s ability to defeat large groups of Polish and allied troops near the western borders of Belarus and Ukraine. shows that Trump has information about the White House’s preparations for the Polish military intervention in the Ukraine crisis in the last stage.
From this point of view, he appreciates the Russian step. He sees in it not just an abstract response to the US modernization of its nuclear weapons located in Germany and on the territories of some other NATO countries (including Turkey), but a very concrete warning that the US is trying to expand the space of war, making it in a European war against Russia that could provoke a nuclear a response sensitive enough for Europe to seriously consider the cost of further confrontation with Russia, but local enough and without affecting the territory of the United States and its main Western European allies that Washington retains the ability to back down without being embroiled in a full-scale nuclear conflict with Russia.
In this case, Trump’s panic is understandable. If the very restrained and responsible Russian leadership was forced to reason with the US, not only to hint at the presence of Moscow’s nuclear potential (as it has repeatedly done in recent years), but quite unequivocally (even more unequivocally than the DPRK periodically) demonstrates a full willingness to apply it in a specific situation of military aggression prepared by the Americans, this means that things have gone too far and the danger of further internationalization of the Ukrainian crisis has been much larger than we imagined before.
Knowing Biden’s cognitive abilities and the level of adequacy of his environment, anyone in Trump’s place would be scared and try to warn his people about the threat of Biden’s personal Alzheimer’s turning into a global apocalypse.
Translation: SM
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