Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – China is now in the spotlight of the world, including Indonesia. The deteriorating economy has had a negative impact on Indonesia, which is a major trading partner.
This afternoon, at 11.00 WIB, the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) will announce the condition of Indonesia’s trade balance for November 2022. The worsening effect of China on Indonesia will be visible in the data.
As is known, Chinese exports decreased by 8.7% (YoY) while their imports decreased by 10.6% (YoY) in November 2022. The weakening of Chinese imports is a sign that their domestic demand is weak and this could impact Indonesia considering the Bamboo Curtain Country is the largest trading partner.
BNI economist Sekuritas Damhuri Nasution estimates the surplus will shrink due to reduced demand from Indonesia’s major trading partners. The surplus is also skewed because the prices of a number of commodities are skewed.
“Export growth is expected to slow in line with reduced demand due to slowing economic growth in major trading partner countries,” Damhuri told CNBC Indonesia.
The market consensus compiled by CNBC Indonesia from 11 institutions estimates a trade balance surplus in November 2022 of $4.4 billion. The surplus is smaller than in October 2022 which reached $5.67 billion. The consensus also shows that exports will grow 8.98% (yoy/yoy) while imports will increase 5.04%.
If the trade balance returns to a surplus, then Indonesia will have recorded a surplus for 31 consecutive months. For the record, the value of exports in October 2022 reached 24.81 billion US dollars or increased by 12.30% (year over year). Imports were recorded at US$19.13 billion or increased 17.44% (yoy).
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(I/I)
