US President Joe Biden will make up his visit to Berlin on Friday. He will hardly be able to hide the differences in security and trade policy.
US President Joe Biden and German Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier on Friday morning at Bellevue Palace in Berlin
Axel Schmidt / Reuters
When Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election in the USA, a sigh of relief went through political Berlin. After the conflict-filled years with Donald Trump, American foreign policy would become predictable again. Germany and the USA would move closer together again. With Biden, the transatlantic friendship would return to what it once was. At least that’s what they hoped for.
Some of the hopes have been fulfilled. In supporting Ukraine, the United States has returned to its classic role as a global leader. They are clearly committed to NATO. And things work interpersonally again. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz calls Biden a friend. He continued to support him even when critical questions about his physical and mental condition increased.
But the outward harmony cannot hide the fact that the US’s priorities have fundamentally changed. “Biden may be the last transatlantic president,” says America expert Marco Overhaus from the Science and Politics Foundation in Berlin, which advises the German government on foreign policy issues. Germany and Europe are no longer at the forefront for the USA.
Joe Biden has arrived in Berlin.
Sean Gallup / Getty
America’s enemies are arming themselves
Geopolitical upheavals force them to do so, regardless of who sits in the White House. This has consequences for Germany’s security. “We cannot assume that the USA will remain our protective power forever,” says Overhaus. The EU and the European part of NATO must prepare to be more self-sufficient in the future.
The USA still invests significantly more in its defense than any other country. But their rivals have also upgraded in recent years. Above all is China, which is not only working on more submarines and aircraft carriers, but is also constantly expanding its nuclear weapons arsenal. Russia has according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Last year, 5.9 percent of its gross domestic product was invested in defense – as much as the last time during the Soviet Union. In the Middle East, Iran is increasingly equipping its allied militias and threatening to become a nuclear power.
It is becoming increasingly expensive for the USA to contain its opponents and at the same time maintain a military presence in numerous regions of the world. In the long term, they will have to make compromises when it comes to supporting Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The Center for Strategic and International Studies, an American research institute, came to this conclusion last year.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited US President Joe Biden in the White House in February this year.
Julia Nikhinson / Imago
Harris also needs to set priorities
The Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, who always emphasizes that the USA will continue to stand with Ukraine in the future, will also know all this. In an emergency, such as a war over Taiwan, she would also have to prioritize.
How Donald Trump would decide in such a scenario is unclear. In any case, the Republican candidate found words of praise for Russian President Vladimir Putin in the past. During the election campaign, he also spoke out in favor of ending the war in Ukraine quickly – without saying exactly how. In February, he even said he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want to do” with NATO countries that devote less than two percent of their gross domestic product to defense.
None of these are new developments. Already during Barack Obama’s term in office, America’s geopolitical focus shifted from Europe to Asia. Obama called himself the “first Pacific president.” For him, Russia was just a “regional power”. Since then, China has been at the top of the US priority list.
The USA no longer stands for free trade
The rivalry with Beijing is also changing American trade policy. The USA is no longer the guarantor of free trade, but is itself practicing protectionism. Trump boasted about his “trade war” with China. But even under Biden, the USA is using its economic power to assert geopolitical interests. Biden not only maintained the tariffs imposed by his predecessor, but even increased some of them. Harris has not yet emerged as an advocate of free trade either. She rejected the TPP trade agreement because it did not serve the interests of American workers.
Trump and Harris last September during their television duel.
Brian Snyder / Reuters
Europe has also already felt the consequences of this protectionism. In November 2022, the Inflation Reduction Act, an investment program worth around $370 billion, was passed with the votes of Democrats in the Senate and House of Representatives. The EU feared the consequences of the subsidies for the European economy. Politicians were worried that companies could migrate to the USA. Economists warned of a subsidy race.
German Economics Minister Robert Habeck and his French counterpart Bruno Le Maire traveled to Washington and expressed their concerns. The American government promised them transparency about the amount of individual subsidies – but the Americans did not change their plans. Tariffs, sanctions and subsidies are now an integral part of the toolbox of American trade policy.
Simply investing more in defense is not enough
Despite everything, little has changed in the German government’s American policy, in terms of trade and defense. “The Biden years were partly an unused opportunity,” says America expert Overhaus. Germany could have made better use of the relative reliability under Biden to adapt to the new conditions.
In defense policy, this means that Europe should be able to defend itself without the USA if necessary, says Overhaus. To achieve this, European countries should invest significantly more in their defense. In his view, however, the upgrade is only a “minimum requirement”.
If the European states want to defend themselves without the USA, they would also have to consider how they can coordinate with each other without it. During his first term, Trump threatened to leave NATO. Assuming he were to carry out this threat in a possible second term in office: How would the European NATO states coordinate if America’s chair in the NATO Council remained empty from one day to the next? So far it does not look as if Germany is prepared to take a leadership role in such a situation.
Biden’s program is significantly shorter than originally planned
In this sense, what happened last week when Biden canceled his state visit to Germany because of Hurricane Milton was revealing. This also affected a planned meeting of the heads of state and government of the countries that support Ukraine in Ramstein. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was supposed to present his “victory plan” there. He spoke in advance of a “historic” meeting.
But without Biden’s presence, nothing like that happened. Instead, Zelensky briefly traveled alone through European capitals and spoke individually with his allies. In Berlin, Scholz promised him two “military support packages”. However, one of them had been known for a long time. In London, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer simply assured him of “ongoing commitment and support.” Things looked similar in Paris and Rome. When Zelenskiy presented his victory plan in the Ukrainian parliament on Wednesday, he emphatically emphasized that its success depends on the partners.
This Friday, Biden will make up his visit to Germany. Both sides will endeavor to send a signal of transatlantic friendship. However, all that remains of the original program is a one-day working visit. Talks are planned with Scholz and with Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who will award Biden the Federal Cross of Merit. A meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Scholz is also on the program.
Will Biden’s successor enjoy transatlantic symbolism as much? One thing is certain: things won’t get any easier in German-American relations – no matter who the Americans elect to the White House on November 5th.
