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What if Ukraine loses the war against Russia? The issue is taboo among Ukrainians and their Western allies because it entails a lot of ambiguity. But after twenty-one months of war, when the military fronts are frozen after the failure of the counteroffensive, some are discreetly asking this question. We have not yet reached the stage of loss. But bad news has been piling up for several weeks about Ukraine, against which all the dark winds of politics and diplomacy have blown. This was written by political analyst Isabel Lasser in an article for the French newspaper Le Figaro.
First on the military front, where stagnation did not wait for the return of autumn mud and winter cold to settle in and freeze initiatives. Some saw in the social and political crises that shook the Kremlin during the year a possible collapse of the Russian military in the medium term. That hope has since evaporated. “The Europeans underestimated the military capacity of the Russians,” sums up Alyona Getmanchuk, director of the New Europe Center think tank in Kyiv. The Russians have once again proven that they possess extraordinary endurance, forged by the terrible years of the Soviet dictatorship, including during the Second World War, and before that by the hard times of the tsarist period. They have also shown their ability to adapt in the military field, where they have changed their tactics according to those of the enemy, using, for example, more and more drones. The arms industry is geared to serve the military economy 24 hours a day and produce ammunition in large quantities. In anticipation of it operating at full capacity, Russia-friendly countries such as Iran and North Korea have plugged the holes in military equipment.
The economic collapse that Westerners hoped for did not happen. Moscow circumvented the sanctions thanks to the support of its allies. The social discontent generated by the slaughter on the battlefield – 150,000 dead as of February 24, 2022 – was stifled by the financial packages handed out to the families by the Kremlin. As for the diplomatic isolation announced by the West, it also did not take place, as the so-called countries of the Global South showed their support or at least their favorable neutrality towards the Kremlin. The money also allowed for the renewal of the fighting forces without resorting to conscription. The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny acknowledged the “impasse” in which his forces find themselves today. While the Ukrainians waited for weapons from the West in trickles, the Russians stepped up and adapted, he argued in an interview with The Economist. “We are holding our positions, we are not losing, but we are not winning,” sums up a former high-ranking Ukrainian official.
The second set of clouds that darkened the sky was the war between Israel and Hamas, which made Ukraine disappear from the media and political meetings for 24 hours as if by magic. Focused on the eastern front for almost two years, the West shifted its gaze to the powder keg of the Middle East. “We are in competition with Israel for US munitions. And it will be worse when the US F16 bombers arrive because the Israelis have the same ones and it is not certain that the US has enough budget to provide enough munitions to both sides.” explains Pavlo Klimkin, former foreign minister of Ukraine. “Time is against us,” he warns.
Russian leaders know this. They enjoy this security. For several weeks now, they have been stepping up their triumphant speeches. “Currently, Vladimir Putin is very active. He wants to be able to offer Russia a result before the presidential elections in March 2024. Before that date, there will be no Russian de-escalation in Ukraine,” warns Pavlo Klimkin. The Russian president is increasing his public appearances and declarations, while the president of the Duma confirms that Kiev has no choice but to “capitulate” or “cease to exist”. The vacillations of the summer, after Prigozhin’s rebellion, were a thing of the past. The representatives of the Kremlin in Europe regained their self-confidence. They take advantage of the friction between Volodymyr Zelensky and his chief of staff Valery Zaluzhny. They affirm loud and clear that the conflict is “a war waged by the United States against Russia through Ukraine.” According to them, Prigozhin’s rebellion in August did not leave a trace on the authorities.
Elites have rallied behind Vladimir Putin, whose re-election this spring is now largely assured. “The Ukrainian issue will be resolved on the battlefield. We will not negotiate. A military defeat for Ukraine is looming. This must happen by May,” announced their representative. Kremlin supporters rely on a “shortage” of men in Ukraine, as well as the “fatigue” of Europeans and Americans. But also at the end of Joe Biden’s term, so long awaited in Moscow. “Donald Trump is not an easy partner, but we will come to an agreement with him,” said one of them.
Paralyzed by Russia’s nuclear threats, the fear of an escalation of the conflict and the fear that the Ukrainians will rush directly with their weapons to Crimea, which should have been a red line for Vladimir Putin, the West has distributed military aid to Ukraine sparingly, hesitantly and with delays. This support allowed Kiev to resist the Russian invasion for twenty-one months. But that wasn’t enough to allow him to win. Today, as the United States finds itself forced to reinvest in the Middle East and the next presidential election could sound a funeral knell for aid for Kiev, the Ukrainian issue is once again haunting Europeans.
They have not reduced their commitment, especially economically, to Ukraine since the outbreak of the new war between Israel and Hamas. “You should not confuse the war. The Europeans are engaged in Ukraine, not in the Middle East. And today there are no signs of disengagement, not even from Germany. The defense of Ukraine is still considered an existential issue because Russia has questioned the security order of the continent,” says a French official. But if the words are always there, the gestures remain slow and hesitant. The pledge to provide one million rounds of ammunition by spring 2024 has so far been only 30% fulfilled. The transition to a war economy announced by some European leaders did not take place. Promises of a geopolitical Europe and strategic autonomy remained slogans not particularly popular outside Paris.
“The problem is that there is no sense of urgency in Europe. The big capitals are waiting for the American elections and hoping for a miracle to happen in Ukraine in the meantime. Everyone believes that the Ukrainians can last another year or two without additional help. But this is not true. We cannot fight to the last Ukrainian,” warns Alyona Getmanchuk. Unlike Europeans, who are having such a hard time breaking out of the pacifist bubble in which they were trapped by the Cold War, Ukrainians on the front lines envision a plan B if victory is long delayed. “Entering NATO without Article 5 until we regain through diplomacy the occupied territories. We must be ambitious, but also realistic. We no longer have a 100% positive scenario. But does the West have a strategy for Ukraine?” asked a Ukrainian official, while reports of the Atlantic Alliance summit in Washington in July 2024 are less and less optimistic.
However, a defeat of Ukraine due to the lack of Western mobilization would have very serious consequences. This would encourage the continuation of the Kremlin’s imperialist project in the other former republics of the USSR. It will weaken, by destroying its values and principles, the camp of Western democracies challenged by that of the autocracies led by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. “If the United States abandons Ukraine, it will be provoked in the same way by China. And if Europe allows this to happen, it will be the death of its project,” warned a French official.
There is not much time for a European awakening.
The current US administration has become increasingly openly irritated by Europe’s slowness and reluctance on military and strategic matters. Donald Trump’s return to the White House would be the icing on the cake for the Kremlin. “We were lucky to have a good American administration and rely on military stockpiles from the Cold War. It’s all over. Today we have to wake up and reindustrialize the continent. Because even a new Biden administration will not have the same European commitment as today,” warns a source from the Elysée Palace. But if the most likely is confirmed – neither Ukrainian victory nor defeat, therefore a protracted war – European countries will have to demonstrate resilience.
The Russian army has announced that it will increase its military budget by 70% in 2024 compared to 2023. “With the money at the Kremlin’s disposal, the Russian army can last several years at the front,” warns former foreign minister Pavlo Klimkin.
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2023-11-23 17:01:00
#Ukraine #collapse
