Screenshot from a video published by the Wagner Group in June. The photo shows former Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin. Photo: Prigozhin Press Service
Both the founder and the head of the Wagner Group died in the same plane crash. What happens to the infamous mercenaries now?
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The founder and leader of the notorious mercenary group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, died in a plane crash on August 23, along with several key members of the organization. The death leads to questions about what will happen to the group in the future. Chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI), Tor Bukkvoll, believes that a similar group will continue to exist, but under tighter control by the Russian armed forces. Show more
– I think that the Wagner Group, as an institution, will probably not exist, says Aleksandr Borodai at the Russian Parliament to The New York Times.
On 23 August, ten people died when a private plane crashed in Russia.
On board were, among others, the Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the mercenary group and his “right-hand man” Dmitry Utkin and Prigozhin’s security chief Valery Chekalov.
In the hours and days that have followed, memorial sites for those who died have appeared in several places in the country.
At the same time, questions have arisen about what will now happen to the soldiers in the Wagner group.
MOSCOW: A woman lays flowers at an informal memorial in the Russian capital. Photo: MAXIM SHIPENKOV / EPA / NTB
According to Borodai, Wagner soldiers have already begun to join both voluntary and official units of the Russian military.
– There are many of them. There is a great flow. The flow didn’t start yesterday, and it won’t end tomorrow. People come in, they want to keep fighting, they have experience. As for the future of the Wagner group, I don’t know. But there probably won’t be one, says Borodai to the newspaper.
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They have fallen out of windows, been found shot, or died after drinking poisoned tea.
Friday got president Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov also questioned what the future would bring for the Wagner Group:
– I can’t say anything about it now, I don’t know, he said, adding that the company formally does not exist.
That’s because private paramilitary groups are not legal in the Russian constitution.
Control of the Russian Armed Forces
Tor Bukkvoll, chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI), says that the Wagner group will probably not find a replacement of the same importance after the death of its leader Yevgenij Prigozhin.
– Prigozhin had a strong personal position in Wagner, so there are several of the mercenaries who are quite angry after the death. Many of them will probably not just “slip over” into a new organisation, says Bukkvoll.
Through channels on the social media Telegram, the Wagner group and what they call their “commanders” have promised a statement on the way forward, ever since they declared Prigozhin dead on Wednesday.
Tor Bukkvoll, chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI). Photo: Christian Tandberg / Norwegian Defense Research Institute
It has not yet arrived.
The New York Times writes that it is unclear whether what remains of the leadership of the group will have enough social capital to lead it as Prigozhin has done.
Bukkvoll says that the Wagner group has always been organized by the state, but that the organization under Prigozhin has had a very large degree of autonomy An actor is considered autonomous when the reasons for how the person acts are the person’s own reasons. (snl.no).
– I think that model is disappearing. A similar group will probably exist in the future, but under more direct control of the Russian defence, says Bukkvoll.
The seas: What is the Wagner Group?
Destabilizing
Karen Philippa Larsen at the Danish Institute for International Studies has studied Wagner groups over a long time. She does not think there are any obvious candidates to take over from Prigozhin.
– We can imagine that the Ministry of Defense or the military intelligence GRU will have the Wagner Group under their wing. But at the same time, it is doubtful whether the remaining Wagner soldiers will sign a contract, says Larsen to VG.
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CRASHED: Several Russian media have published this image of what is supposed to be the crashed private plane that crashed in Tver county, north of Moscow. Photo: Telegram
– According to it British Ministry of Defence Prigozhin’s death will “pretty sure” have a very destabilizing effect on the Wagner group. What do you think about that statement?
– I see that as correct. It is likely that the Russian military is now trying to get the soldiers over other similar organizations.
He singles out organizations called “Redut” and “Konvoi” as relevant groupings.
Business agreements in Africa and the Middle East
The Russian Ministry of Defense has reportedly begun creating new paramilitary forces to replace the Wagner group in Africa and the Middle East, according to the ISW think tank.
– The armed forces also probably want to take over the lucrative business agreements that the Wagner group has had on the African continent, says Bukkvoll.
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Several high-ranking people in the Wagner group are said to have been on board the private plane that crashed on Wednesday evening.
The Wagner Group has been present in several African countries since 2017. They operate in the Central African Republic, Sudan, Mali and Libya, among others.
– The group’s operations in Africa are still very valuable to Russia. They use them to extend their strategic influence and gain access to important raw materials, writes Vanda Felbab-Brown of the Brookings Institute in the US in a article on the institute’s website.
Does not affect the Ukraine war
Bukkvoll says that the death probably does not affect the war in Ukraine.
– I do not think that what has happened has a significant effect on the ongoing war. The mercenaries have already given up heavier weapons and moved to Belarus.
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The think tank ISW refers to Russian sources who have reported that the Kremlin Kremlin Kremlin is often used as a synonym for the Russian government has refused to pay for the deployment of Wagner forces in Belarus, and that mercenaries have therefore started to leave the group due to lack of pay.
– Will the soldiers be able to participate in the war again at a later date?
– It cannot be ruled out, but Wagner as an organization will not participate. It is then under other mercenary organisations, controlled by the Russian armed forces, Bukkvoll replies.
Photo of Yevgeny Prigozhin allegedly in Belarus. Photo: Wagner-Gruppen/Telegram Published:
Published: 29.08.23 at 00:33
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2023-08-28 22:33:08
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