What factors will mark the mortgage market in the second half of the year

The real estate sector monitors the factors that may mark its behavior in the coming months. In 2020, the outbreak of the health pandemic affected the economy and the different sectors of activity. Last year real estate showed clear signs of recovery, with more than 560,000 home sales, marking the best year since 2007. In 2022, despite the arrival of funds Next Generationthe uncertainty is called to be the predominant note for the sector: inflation, Euribor, interest rate hikes… What will be the trends that will mark the mortgage market in the second half of the year?

Inflation, which closed June at 10.2%, will be one of the most influential factors in the coming months. “Despite not expecting an excessive rise in the level of prices in Spanish real estate, the continuity over time of this inflationary trend has been reflected in the rise in interest ratesbecause it is the mechanism of the central banks to combat it”, explains Josep Vera, director of Business Development at Hipotecas.com, channel online of UCI (Union of Real Estate Credits).

In this sense, the expert recalls that it will be necessary to see the evolution of the economy in the coming months to draw clear long-term conclusions and determine whether the price of mortgages will be “more or less conditioned”.

In the case of the Euribor, the main reference index for mortgages in Spain, in the last four months its rise has been constant and in June it was already around 1%. “We estimate that The Euribor will close the year between 1.25% and 1.75%. However, and regardless of these forecasts, it should be noted that, today, investing in housing is still a refuge, because, despite the rise, interest rates remain low and buying a home is a much more affordable option. attractive to monetize the savings accumulated during the pandemic against other assets such as deposits or bonds, which are more conditioned by market instability,” adds Vera.

The price of housing will continue to rise this year, and that is because inflation, together with the lack of labor and the high price of raw materials and energy costs They are the conditioning factors for this market, Vera affirms, “which reduce profitability to a minimum and mean that the supply of new construction is not sufficient to satisfy demand”. And she adds that “the sale of used housing represents 80% of the total, but despite this, the existing supply does not meet the demand. A large percentage of new housing is being sold off-plan”.

The lack of new construction forces us to focus on the importance of the rehabilitation of real estate. Vera recalls that at the current rate of rehabilitation – some 30,000 homes a year – it will take more than 300 years to rehabilitate the entire Spanish park and reach the 2050 decarbonisation goal.

Another determining factor this end of the year will be the use of funds Next Generation of the European Union for the rehabilitation of homes. From the UCI Group they consider that this sector of activity will move around 30,000 million in 2022, generating up to 400,000 jobs in the coming years.