The war in Ukraine is not going as planned for Russia. The goals of ‘denazifying’ and demilitarizing Ukraine have not been achieved. In fact, the Ukrainian army offers fierce resistance and almost no city has been captured by the Russians. The invasion seems to have stalled after three weeks of battle
Meanwhile, Russia is groaning under the heavy sanctions imposed by the West. And when Putin is cornered, he is unpredictable, experts say. Could it be a reason for Putin to use nuclear weapons? Analyst Paul van Hooft, from The Hague Center for Strategic Studies, answers the most important questions.
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1. How can Russia strike with nuclear weapons?
“It is unlikely that Russia will attack New York or Paris with long-range missiles. That is suicide. The most likely would be that Putin deploys a tactical nuclear weapon. That fits within the Russian doctrine for the use of advanced weapons; as a kind of warning shot .”
“It concerns a relatively small nuclear weapon that is deployed on a city district or a military target. If such a nuclear weapon explodes on the ground, radioactive particles spread further because they are propelled upwards in a dust cloud. is detonated, that effect is less. That is a choice.”
“People are quick to think that the whole world is gone in a nuclear attack. But some conventional weapons are more destructive than the smallest tactical nuclear weapons.”
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2. Putin has already armed his nuclear weapons. What does this mean?
“First the troops are prepared. Think of captains on submarines with nuclear weapons. Nuclear warheads can then be attached to missiles. Aircraft with missiles with nuclear warheads can conduct patrols. It seems that this has not been carried out, intelligence services would not have observed that .”
“Putin is not using it as a deterrent, as in the Cold War, but as a means of coercion. He is trying to force the US and Europe not to impose more sanctions or to make arms deliveries.”
3. What steps should Putin take before a nuclear attack?
“We often think of someone pressing a button when using nuclear weapons, but that’s different. Usually, codes are passed on to individual officers who have control over nuclear weapons. Those codes are the key to deploying the weapons.”
“That can happen because of Putin or, for example, his defense chief or another high-ranking figure. As a country, you don’t want that when the leader is dead, you can no longer deploy nuclear weapons. But you also don’t want a colonel to just use them on their own.” There is always a backup plan. But of course there is also the chance that officers will refuse in these kinds of situations.”
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4. What are the chances that Russia will drop the bomb?
“I think it’s unlikely, but not impossible. Putin has already reacted more aggressively and dangerously than we expected in Ukraine. If this is a bluff, then he started bluffing pretty early. It’s a card you don’t want to draw quickly.”
5. What is the West doing then?
“If Russia deploys a tactical nuclear weapon on the territory of non-NATO member Ukraine, then the West will not retaliate with a nuclear weapon, I expect.”
“Western countries are already on high alert. The French are now sailing with not one, but three submarines that can carry nuclear weapons. That has not happened since the early 1980s, during the Cold War. The West is now working.” protocols in escalation management. That has to be done with a lot of self-control, because nobody wants a nuclear war.”
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