/ world today news/ The head of the Kyiv Foreign Ministry, Kuleba, called for “turning the Black Sea into what the Baltic Sea has become – into a sea of NATO”. The alliance itself is considering plans to deploy a rapid-reaction force in the region and is working to get Turkey to review the Bosphorus and Dardanelles traffic regime. But for its transformation into a “NATO lake” there is at least one more obstacle besides the presence of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. On the other hand, no new threat can be ignored.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba made a statement that (including according to the Kremlin) contains a logical contradiction. “The time has come to turn the Black Sea into what the Baltic became – a NATO sea,” said the curator of foreign policy of Kyiv.
At the same time, according to Kuleba’s logic, turning the Black Sea into a NATO-controlled military bloc should mean “demilitarization of the region.” In July 2021, the same Kuleba stated that Russia seeks to “turned the Black Sea into its own inland lake”.
„There will be no NATO here. NATO has many other seas, let them swim there. And not to mention that they can’t swim in the Black Sea, they can only sink” the chairman of the Crimean parliament, Vladimir Konstantinov, answered Kuleba on April 14. He recalled that after Russian troops liberated the coastal regions of the DPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson region, Ukraine lost access to the Sea of Azov, “the next stage is the loss of access to the Black Sea”.
On the other hand, we note that of the six Black Sea countries, three (Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey) are members of the North Atlantic Alliance, and two – Ukraine and Georgia – are firmly oriented towards NATO. “Washington, after the collapse of the USSR, in the situation that arose, tried to find a way to turn the Black Sea into a NATO lake”, noted a month ago the Turkish publication Cumhuriyet, commenting on the statement of the White House: American planes will continue to fly over the Black Sea, despite the incident with the American Reaper drone and the Russian Su-27.
„Almost NATO’ sea
The Black Sea, of course, is not a “NATO lake”, but the situation is strikingly different from the Soviet-era arrangement, when only Turkey was part of NATO, the water area from Snake Island to Batumi was Soviet, and socialist Romania and Bulgaria were part of The Warsaw Pact.
After the unification of Crimea with Russia in 2014, the fleets of NATO countries began to show themselves more actively in the Black Sea. Poseidon, Sea Shield and Sea Breeze maneuvers and other interaction exercises were conducted regularly. In 2021, as part of the maneuvers, B-1B Lancer bombers from the US Air Force practiced strikes on the positions of the Black Sea Fleet, Forbes reported.
At the same time, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said: NATO is studying the possibilities of a rapid transfer of forces to the Black Sea region and deployment of reinforcements there.
Before Turkey closed the Bosphorus and Dardanelles in March 2022, allied warships entered the Black Sea for the passage of other countries’ warships, including the flagship of the US 6th Fleet USS Mount Whitney, the French Navy missile frigate D654 Auvergne, the British fleet destroyer Defender. The latter, we recall, in June 2021 provocatively violated our border in the Black Sea, near the Crimean Cape Fiolent.
In March of this year, the Sea Shield 2023 maneuvers took place in Romanian territorial waters, in which 12 member states of the North Atlantic Alliance participated, several dozen ships of the Navy of Romania and Bulgaria, 14 aircraft from the United States, Turkey, Romania and France were involved.
The alliance also actively uses the land infrastructure of its Black Sea members. The Aegis Ashore anti-missile systems (which can be retrofitted at any time to launch Tomahawk cruise missiles, including those with nuclear warheads), we recall, are located at the Romanian Deveselu base, which is used by the US.
Last year, about 5,000 fighter jets from the US 101st Airborne Division’s “Screaming Eagles” were stationed at Mihail Coglunicanu Air Force Base near the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta.
In February 2022, Stoltenberg announced the deployment of a NATO battle group in Romania, the size of which should roughly correspond to similar groups in the Baltic states and Poland – about 1,000 “bayonets”. We are not talking about the use of the same Romanian Constanta and the Bulgarian port of Varna for the needs of the naval forces of the NATO countries – this has become routine.
NATO aviation monitors the territory of Russia and monitors the activities of the Black Sea Fleet with the help of P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance and patrol aircraft, RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft, RQ-4 Global Hawk drones and other aircraft. It is true that after the Reaper drone incident near Sevastopol, NATO is staying away from Crimea.
„What Bulgaria and Romania have on their own militarily can be overlooked.” said for REGNUM captain first rank from the reserve Sergey Ishchenko. But, he added, Turkey’s capabilities are another matter.
The Turkish dissent
The country has the second largest NATO army (more than 355,000 “under arms”) and – what is important in this case – a fairly strong navy. According to open sources, the Turkish navy has 16 frigates, 9 corvettes, 18 fast assault boats and 34 amphibious ships. Another fact is that Turkey maintains a naval force in the Aegean – to “counterbalance” Greece, in the Mediterranean – where, among other things, it also covers Northern Cyprus. So the Black Sea sector with naval bases in Sinop and Samsun is unlikely to have a special account at the fleet headquarters (sitting at the Geldzhuk base in the Sea of Marmara).
But the most important thing about Turkey is the political position of its current authorities, headed by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is why “the Turks will not let American ships into the Black Sea”, Ishchenko thinks. The oldest (since 1952) Black Sea member of the alliance is at the same time the most unreliable ally of the US in NATO, and Ankara’s relations with Washington have especially worsened on the eve of the presidential elections in Turkey.
„Turkey is unlikely to use its potential in the Black Sea against us, at least now and in the foreseeable future, and it will not miss the Americans.”
– noted the military expert Alexander Artamonov. Ankara strictly observes the limitations of the Montreux Convention on the Black Sea Straits, adopted in 1920. The document, we recall, establishes a different regime for passage through the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus for military ships of the Black Sea and non-Black Sea powers (class and tonnage restrictions are introduced for the latter).
Despite proposals from allies to circumvent the provisions of the convention or to completely cancel the document for confrontation with Russia, Erdogan is unlikely to benefit from the strengthening of the US (as well as the strengthening of Russia) in the region, Ishchenko is sure. “I think that with Turkey’s current position in the conflict and with their attitude towards the US, they will not change the balance of power in the Black Sea. Because then maybe, in general, nobody will be happy if the US 6th Fleet goes in there – neither us, nor them.”the military expert pointed out.
„Turkey takes a striking position towards NATO. She, although she remains a member of the alliance, increasingly behaves more like an organizer of the “Great Turan”, Erdogan’s project’ Artamonov also agrees.
Another issue is that if Erdogan loses the election to the European-oriented Kemal Kulçdaroğlu, Ankara will become more compliant. But this by no means guarantees the transformation of the Black Sea into a “NATO lake”, if only because of the presence of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
The Black Sea Fleet: New Powers and New Threats
„In recent years, the Black Sea Fleet has been strengthened, two projects of 23,900 helicopter carriers have been laid down in Kerch and are being built, which by their characteristics are superior to the unacquired French Mistral. notes Artamonov.
The Black Sea Fleet received new submarines with modern Lada-class missiles (the next generation after the Varshavyanka submarine, which filled the fleet ten years ago), the military expert added. The basis of the Black Sea Fleet are ships that entered service in 2010: the new multi-purpose frigates of project 11 356 “Admiral Grigorovich” (2016), “Admiral Esen” (2016), “Admiral Makarov” (2017 ). ).
The loss of the missile cruiser “Moskva” did not affect the implementation of the general strategic task of the Black Sea Fleet in the SVO – the blockade of the Ukrainian section of the Black Sea coast, according to Artamonov.
„Everything in the Black Sea is within the firing range of Russian coastal batteries, in particular the Bal mobile anti-ship systems, so it is pointless to talk about the possibility of creating a blockade against Russia.” the expert points out. The bases of the Black Sea Fleet are covered by: Bastion and Bereg coastal complexes, air defense units with S-400 and S-300 complexes, Buk and Shell, Utyos coastal missile system. ” – “ship killer”, in the words of the American National Interest.
But this does not mean complete protection from threats, Ishchenko believes. “Now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are working to organize a drone attack on all the main bases of the Black Sea Fleet, including in Sevastopol,” said the source, who said the previous attacks on Crimea were combat reconnaissance. “Several units for controlling surface drones similar to those that twice participated in the attack on Sevastopol are being formed within the Navy of Ukraine.” thinks Ishchenko.
The security of the bases should be reviewed, the interlocutor is convinced. At the same time, Ishchenko notes that measures are already being taken to protect against possible attacks by ground drones. “Recently I noticed that in addition to the toll fence that was placed at the entrance to the Sevastopol Bay, another row of toll fences was placed at the entrance to the South Bay, and separate fences surround the berths of submarines. That is, at least three barrier lines have been created’bleach Ishchenko.
The Baltics are a sorry example of NATO control
Let’s add in conclusion: the comparison of Kuleba on the Black Sea with the Baltic Sea, which has supposedly already become a “NATO Sea”, also seems strange. Probably, the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry had in mind the entry of Finland into NATO and the possible accession of Sweden.
But Kuleba for some reason ignored the presence of the Russian Baltic fleet (both in Kronstadt and the ports of the Gulf of Finland, and in the Kaliningrad region – in Baltiysk and, in fact, in Kaliningrad). As well as the fact that the Baltic Sea, unlike the Black Sea, is not “clogged” so easily.
„Kaliningrad region is not yet in the far part of the Baltic Sea, but in close proximity to the maritime possessions of Poland, Denmark and Sweden. And we have a sufficient number of ships destined for Kaliningrad, “ reminds Artamonov.
In the event that NATO countries try to escalate the situation, the Kaliningrad region, Russia’s outpost in the region, will be reliably covered by Russian Iskander-M operational-tactical complexes. Bastion supersonic complexes are deployed in the Baltics, which cover the forces of the Baltic Fleet – corvettes, small missile and anti-submarine ships. From the air, the area is protected by MiG-31I fighters (carriers of hypersonic “Daggers”) and Su-30SM.
The Baltic Fleet’s new warships, such as the Project 22,800 Karakurt and Project 21,631 Buyan-M small missile ships, are armed with high-precision and long-range Kalibr missiles. The Russian leadership understands the situation created after the entry of the countries of the region into NATO, which is why more attention will be paid to increasing the capabilities of the Baltic Fleet to protect national interests in the Baltic.
Translation: EU
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