The threat of Russian President Vladimir Putin to the West not to stand in the way of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the order to declare a special regime for nuclear forces is a major factor deterring NATO nations from providing more assistance to Ukraine. The LTV program “de facto” explained what Putin’s order meant in practice.
Despite the Ukrainian airstrikes, NATO countries are not ready to establish a no-fly zone in Ukraine. The supply of Polish fighter jets to Ukraine has also not been received US approval. In the West, he certainly bears in mind Putin’s statements about the announcement of a special combat duty regime in the strategic deterrence or nuclear forces of the Russian army.
Russia’s nuclear forces have several levels of readiness. Translating Putin’s phrase is not easy. Pavel Podvig, a researcher at the UN Disarmament Research Institute who specializes in Russia’s nuclear weapons, has at least a few guesses about what Putin’s order means.
For example, Russia could move intercontinental missiles and nuclear submarines to safer places, hiding them in the forest or at sea, respectively. Bombs could be delivered to the planes. However, none of this has been observed.
“The most important thing is that nothing like this has happened. These would be very visible steps, and the United States in particular would have seen it on satellites. The same applies to non-strategic nuclear weapons, which can be delivered to a target with a short-range missile: launchers or cruise missiles. In everyday life, these nuclear weapons are not close to delivery systems. Icanders do not wander around with nuclear warheads attached, they are all in storage. Their movement would be visible, and we have not seen it, ”says Podvig.
However, Putin’s order could also mean less dangerous things, such as making Russia’s nuclear weapons command and control system less vulnerable from the outside or increasing the number of people on duty.
“Such an action would not be in preparation for an attack. It’s almost like a defensive move, mostly invisible from the outside. But Putin’s political message, which was important and central, was that you don’t even think of attacking us, “he said.
As far as we know, Russia has about two thousand strategic and tactical nuclear warheads in stock. Only intercontinental and submarine missiles are on standby, not tactical nuclear weapons that can be used in a smaller-scale conflict.
Basically, nuclear weapons in Russia’s military doctrine are meant to counterattack if someone were to attack Russia with nuclear weapons. However, Russia may also make the first blow if it considers that its very existence is threatened.
“We do not know too much, unfortunately, about who the decision-makers are. The system’s protocol was designed to protect against false alarms, hasty decisions by one person, ”explains Podvigs.
Russian nuclear weapons specialist Igor Sutyagin, who was convicted by the Russians of espionage for the British and exchanged with Russian spies in 2010 with Sergei Skrippa and others, wrote 20 years ago that launching a nuclear weapon first required a signal from the warning system that Russia was being attacked. The commander-in-chief, in this case Putin, would then make a decision, asking the defense minister and the chief of staff, Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, respectively. On the other hand, if Russia itself decided to attack, the president and defense minister should be instructed to generate such a signal. However, this procedure may also be outdated.
“My guess is that technical security measures can be circumvented, but at the same time, the process involves quite a number of people, including the Minister of Defense and the Chief of General Staff. It is not that there is a button that one would press and the rocket would take off, ”says the expert.
Many analysts do not currently see the need for Putin to turn the war in Ukraine into a nuclear war. However, many did not expect him to start this war at all.
Speaking in Congress this week, US White House National Intelligence Director Avril Heinz said Putin’s recall of nuclear weapons could be intended to deter the West from providing additional assistance to Ukraine.i: “Putin is likely to believe that Russia can defeat Ukraine militarily and wants to prevent Western aid from balancing Ukraine. ”
The United States has promised to supply Ukraine with new weapons, to which Moscow has already replied that aid convoys are becoming legitimate targets of the Russian army.
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