If things really get bad between Israel and Iran, Beijing’s leaders will likely stand by, keeping their fingers crossed that China’s interests survive the crossfire. The Economist article
Last month, as tensions between Iran and Israel escalated, China helped organize a five-day Chinese film festival in the Iranian capital Tehran. The festival opened with a blockbuster: “The Battle of Changjin Lake.” The film portrays the heroism of Chinese soldiers who fought against American troops in the 1950-53 Korean War. “Strike one punch to avoid a hundred,” Mao Zedong is shown exhorting his colleagues. Chinese nationalist bloggers enthusiastically welcomed the screening of the film. “Iran cannot remain inactive, even if the US is behind Israel!” wrote one widely read.
If Chinese officials reflect on the violence that has occurred in the Middle East since then, they may be less inclined to escalate. Iran fired a barrage of missiles at Israel on October 1. Israel has relentlessly attacked Iran’s proxies in Gaza and Lebanon. All this does not please China, which is by far the most powerful of the four countries – including Iran, North Korea and Russia – which in the West have acquired the nickname “axis of upheaval” and “quartet of chaos”. The four share a contempt for the US-led global order and a willingness to destroy it. Their dealings with security are often murky. But despite its hardening around Taiwan, China has limits to its propensity for conflict – he writes The Economist. […]
CHINESE INTEREST IN IRANIAN OIL
China benefits from Iran’s abundant oil supplies. The volume of this trade is difficult to quantify due to the elaborate schemes that China and Iran use to evade American sanctions. But estimates speak of 10-15% of China’s crude oil imports. This is the majority of Iranian exports of this fuel.
As the world’s largest buyer of foreign oil, China worries about the potential impact of a broader war in the Middle East on the flow and cost of the product. Iran sells its oil cheaply. An Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities could force China to become more dependent on other, more expensive suppliers, such as Saudi Arabia. But Saudi shipping could be disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea by missile attacks from Iran or the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen.
This may not be disastrous for China. It is thought to have reserves that would cover three or four months of lost imports. Additionally, oil accounts for 18% of China’s energy supply, compared to 34% for America.
CHINA’S COMMERCIAL INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST
But a major war in the Middle East could threaten China’s commercial interests in the region. China has invested billions of dollars in energy and infrastructure projects, especially in Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Israel is also a beneficiary of Chinese investments (despite China having long supported the Palestinian cause). […]
China sees declining American power in the Middle East and senses an opportunity. It has established ties with Iran, but also with Saudi Arabia and Iran’s other rivals. China describes its large investments in the region as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global infrastructure-building program aimed at boosting Chinese trade and power. The BRI’s non-politically biased approach helps present China as a non-dominating power. China is keen to promote this image among countries in the Global South, which it sees as a counterweight to America.
WHY CHINA IS USED FOR A DISTRACTED AMERICA
But as the Middle East threatens to descend into ever-widening conflict, with Iran – an important friend of China – at the center of it, China’s diplomatic impotence in the region risks being exposed. China has tried to prove the opposite. Last March he brokered the final stages of a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore their long-severed diplomatic relations. In July the rival Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas, announced a vague agreement in Beijing to cooperate in forming a new government for the Palestinians once the war in Gaza ends.
These moves, however, have done nothing to stop the violence. Israel rejected the “Beijing Declaration” and does not want Hamas to play a role in the Palestinian territories. Iran’s dependence on China as a buyer of its oil would appear to give China leverage over the Islamic Republic. But China apparently sees greater dividends from America’s involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts than from trying to help keep Iran in check. An America distracted by wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, according to China, would be less willing to confront China over Taiwan or the South China Sea. […]
CHINA’S RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIA AND NORTH KOREA
For China, the other two members of the quartet are more important concerns. Russia and North Korea both border China and serve as a buffer against encroaching American power and influence. But even with these countries, China does not offer carte blanche. It provides massive technological support to Russian defense industries, while appearing to provide no weapons for use against Ukraine (despite a partnership with Russia that both describe as “unlimited”). China has made clear its opposition to Russia’s threat to use nuclear weapons in that conflict.
As for North Korea, China did not prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons, but was clearly angered by this move. According to the Carnegie Endowment, an agreement that closely resembles a defense treaty between North Korea and Russia, signed in June, “could get Russia into trouble with China, which may fear losing influence over Pyongyang.” .
China sees all its authoritarian friends as useful to trouble America. But he also treats them with caution, showing a lower appetite for risk than the other members of the quartet. In the Middle East, it does not want to get entangled in a complex struggle. If things really get bad between Israel and Iran, Beijing’s leaders will likely stand by, keeping their fingers crossed that China’s interests survive the crossfire.
(Excerpt from the foreign press review edited by eprcommunication)
Related articles
In the war in Ukraine we do not miss anything. After Iranian drones, Cuban mercenaries,…
War and energy represent an inseparable combination. This is how tensions between Israel and Iran…
Republicans close to Trump would like to replace the director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, accused …
The Swiss startup LatticeFlow AI, together with two research institutes, has created the first…
