/ world today news/ Alexander Lukashenko reached agreements with the parties to the conflict in Russia. Prigozhin accepted the proposal of the President of Belarus to “stop the movement of armed persons from the Wagner company.” It remains to try to understand what was and what to do with all this now.
What happened on the evening of June 24th
At the moment on the table is an absolutely profitable and acceptable option for resolving the situation with security guarantees for the fighters of PMC “Wagner”, – reported the press service of the President of Belarus. According to other sources, Wagner has already begun to return to the field camps.
Some of these sources claim that the negotiations had a much more complex configuration than Yevgeny Prigozhin’s talks with Alexander Lukashenko. They say that the governor of the Tula region (known for his previous service in the FSB right next to President Vladimir Putin) Alexei Dyumin took an active part in them.
Other sources claim that the Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev participated in the negotiations (perhaps even decisively). This, in turn, means that the entire course of negotiations was personally controlled by the Supreme Commander.
But what kind of negotiations these were, what was actually discussed, what the “senior negotiators” threatened each other with, we do not know.
The commentary of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s press service helps the understanding as little as any other sources:
They wanted to dissolve PMC “Wagner”, and we came out on June 23 at the Justice March. During the day, we didn’t even get 200 km to Moscow. During this time we have not shed a single drop of blood from our fighters. Now is the time when blood may be shed. Realizing the full responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be spilled by one of the parties, we deploy our columns in the direction, back to the field camps, according to the plan.
It’s very nicely worded, but it explains absolutely nothing.
With a strong desire, tomorrow it will be possible to consider everything that happened in Rostov, Lipetsk, Voronezh and so on on the way of the assault aviation columns to Moscow, “as if it had not happened before.”
But after it happened, it makes sense to ask ourselves what happened on June 23-24 and how did it end?
Former rebels, and now who?
Rebellion cannot end in success, otherwise it is called by another name. However, the most interesting thing is that now we do not know the name of this former (or still ongoing?) rebellion.
What do we really know? This PMC “Wagner”, headed by its founder-leader, was in a state for 24 hours that could hardly be called anything other than rebellion. In addition, the word “riot” in relation to the “Wagner” performance was not uttered by journalists, for example, from Tsargrad. No, this word was heard in the official report of the National Counter-Terrorism Committee and in the official report of the FSB, and then in the speech of the president himself.
If any agreements are made with the rebel leader (doesn’t matter what), then he is no longer considered a rebel? Political scientist Sergey Markov writes:
All cases against Prigozhin have now been closed. Putin keeps his word.
Great. But who, in this case, is now considered a recent rebel?
Next series of questions. Wagner retreats back to his field camps. It is clear that on the one hand, because otherwise real military action would open up to the complete destruction of the columns advancing towards Moscow. But it is obvious that there were some concessions, the fulfillment of some requirements set by Prigozhin. What? Chief among these demands is said to be the resignation of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. This is very difficult to comment on, since such a resignation, if it comes to pass, should very seriously undermine the authority – not of a specific general, but of the entire Ministry of Defense in the army.
But that’s not all. “Wagner” did not reach Moscow, he returned to the camps. And where will he go from these camps (not necessarily exactly tomorrow – basically in the future)? From the front? As it was once said and repeated today in various ways, again to accomplish some important tasks in Africa? The most important thing: how and who can now be sure that the PMC will fulfill its tasks?
For that matter, what will be the status of the PMC now in the system of power structures of Russia and in the structure of power? Until now, it was believed that this status was not formally defined, but understood by “decision makers”. After the “rebellion” and the negotiations on June 24, he apparently changed. What is he now? Who will command the PMC and assign it tasks? What will he do if one of these tasks seems impossible, harmful, offensive to the PMC?
Many questions to which not only patriotic public opinion has no answer would be half the trouble. The problem is if the “high contracting parties” themselves do not have these answers.
What of this?
Perhaps the most correct and brief comment after the news that Wagner was leaving was made by the founder of Tsargrad Konstantin Malofeev, who simply wrote in his telegram channel “God Save”. Because if there is something fundamentally important and absolutely positive about what happened: that there was no civil war (yet?). The military coup attempt was aborted. There will be no battle between different parts of the Russian army (yet?). That’s good. It is an absolute blessing.
But, enjoying this blessing, it is impossible not to ask ourselves and others: is it certain that what happened will never happen again?
Translation: SM
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