Summary of the article
The topic of migration, integration and asylum seekers is a topic that has strongly influenced the political and electoral processes in the Netherlands in recent times. On the basis of 8 statements, a good impression can be given of the views of the Dutch and the relationship with political preference. And also the dominant position of the PVV.
Read full article: What does the Netherlands think about immigration and asylum?
Reading time: 4 minutes
The big twisted apple
The cabinet fell over it six months ago: migration. It played a major role during the elections, as well as during the formation. This week, extensive advice was issued from a State Commission with this subject at its core (“Demographic developments up to 2050“). How do we deal with migration and asylum?
By presenting a series of statements to a sample of more than 5,500 Dutch people via Peil.nl, a good impression can be given of what the Dutch think of this subject.
- 76% of Dutch people agree with the statement “immigration must be significantly reduced”, 11% disagree. There are major differences in voting choice in the 2023 House of Representatives elections. All parties in the center and right of center largely agree with this. Only voters from left-wing parties agree with this in a minority. But the left-wing parties currently only have a third of the voters behind them. The topic of “immigration and asylum” has played a clear role in the decline in the share of voters over the past 10 years. In 2012, about half of voters still voted for left-wing parties, which is now almost 20 percentage points less.
Dutch people between the ages of 18 and 35 agree with this statement for 65%. Over 45 years old, more than 80% agree. In addition, there is a clear relationship with education level. (Higher educated people agree less than lower educated people). But the question that shows the biggest difference is whether people mainly see threats or opportunities due to the changes in the last 10 years. Those who answer “threats” agree with this statement for 90% and those who say “opportunities” only agree with 54%.
Theses
For the other statements we see similar differences by vote choice in the 2023 House of Representatives elections. Therefore, first only the total scores per question:
Agree Neutral Disagree Study migration to the Netherlands should be severely limited 64% 17% 19% Labor migration from outside Europe should be severely limited 70% 17% 14% Labor migration from within Europe should be severely limited 51% 25% 24% The number of asylum seekers who who are allowed to settle in the Netherlands must be reduced to zero for a number of years. 52% 11% 37% People who permanently settle in the Netherlands from outside the Netherlands must adapt to the Dutch culture. 88% 9% 3% Asylum seekers who come from safe countries and have no chance of asylum must be deported from the country as quickly as possible 93% 6% 1% The reception of asylum seekers must be distributed among all municipalities 50% 11% 39%
To show the differences between voters of the different parties, here is an overview of the share of voters from the four largest parties at TK2023 who agree with the statements.
PVV VVD NSC PvdA/GrL Immigration must be significantly reduced 98% 92% 94% 38% Study migration to the Netherlands must be severely limited 82% 60% 79% 47% Labor migration from outside Europe must be severely limited 93% 74% 83% 36% Labor migration from within Europe must be severely limited 74% 45% 64% 21% The number of asylum seekers allowed to settle in the Netherlands must be reduced to zero for a number of years 89% 52% 62% 6% People who settle permanently in the Netherlands from outside Those who settle in the Netherlands must adapt to Dutch culture. 98% 93% 95% 69% Asylum seekers who come from safe countries and have no chance of asylum must be deported from the country as quickly as possible 99% 98% 98% 81% The reception of asylum seekers must be distributed among all municipalities 11% 46 % 39% 96%
Fuel for electoral dynamics
Of all Dutch people, 40% indicate that the PVV has positions on migration and integration that are most similar to those of the respondent. Of those who voted VVD on November 22, 38% say that the PVV’s position on migration is most similar to its own position. Only 44% mention the VVD. A large proportion of the VVD voters of TK2023 who mention the PVV now indicate that they prefer the PVV over the VVD!
The graph below clearly shows the position of the various parties on this subject.
Also on other topics, a voter may believe that another party has “better positions” on that specific topic than the party they vote for during an election. But that subject is apparently of less importance to that voter, so that the voting choice is not determined by it.
But if the subject is considered – very – important and people are dissatisfied with how the preferred party deals with that subject, then this can become a reason to switch electorally.
This graph shows that VVD and NSC – the two largest parties with a relatively large amount of blue in this graph – clearly run an electoral risk on that point. And where the PVV gets its electoral potential from.
The intense electoral movements from mid-November until now have this topic as important fuel, so to speak! The result, among other things, was this weekend’s historic result.
It is important to realize that this will either change when a government takes office, which addresses the subject more or less as these voters want, or that another subject will become dominant. Then it may be that, despite the similarities in positions with the PVV in this area, people still turn to another party.
We will see how this develops in the near future.
2024-01-21 23:43:15
#Netherlands #immigration #asylum
