Donald Trump announced the recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara on December 10, 2020. This decision taken at the end of his mandate necessarily raises the question of the positioning of his successor Joe Biden, as well as of key players on the international scene such as the European Union and France. For Rabat, which enjoys an image of the West’s best ally in the Arab world, Donald Trump’s decision must create a dynamic to resolve a conflict that has lasted too long.
The election of Joe Biden portends a return to multilateralism, a task in which he will be supported by two voices that bear in the region: Linda Thomas-Greefliled, United States representative to the UN and Anthony Blinken, the new secretary of the ‘State of the White House. For the time being, none of these central figures has questioned the recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, which was corroborated by the announcement of the opening of an American consulate in the city of Dakhla, the December 10, 2020.
It therefore seems unlikely that the new administration will reverse this decision, for several reasons. First, such a turnaround has so far never been seen in the political history of the United States. Secondly, the American decision takes place in a context of normalization of relations with the Arab States and Israel (Abraham Accord).
This peace treaty, widely supported by the United States, was signed between Israel, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Sudan before being signed with Morocco. The agreement does not mean, however, that the kingdom wishes to change its position vis-à-vis the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that it still envisages through the two-state solution. It is more a question of re-establishing diplomatic, economic and security relations which have, in fact, always been present although discreet.
This can be explained in particular by the Moroccan Jewish community present in the two countries and which is estimated at nearly 800,000 people in Israel. This agreement carried out within a framework initiated by Washington revives all the more the historical relations between the United States and Morocco.
Cooperation. Third point, the White House plans to become more involved in the Mediterranean scene, through various investments in the markets of the South. In this context, Morocco constitutes a platform and an essential strategic ally. In addition, the links between the United States, Morocco and Europe are solid. Researcher Khadija Mohsen-Finan recalls that “her cooperation is considered valuable, since it monitors the Strait of Gibraltar, authorizes the overflight of its territory in the event of war, and plays an important role in the management of migratory flows, by preventing the ‘African immigration to pass to Europe’.
On this issue, France’s position is unequivocal and is intended to be in line with that of the United Nations and the Security Council.
In light of these elements, the Western Sahara issue is a real subject of interest for Europe, which devotes crucial attention to the migration issue, as well as to the issue of terrorism in the Maghreb and the Sahel. Since the Valletta Summit (2015) and the establishment of a special fund to deal with migration issues (Africa Trust Fund or Fiduciary Fund in French), Brussels deploys considerable human, technical and financial resources to apprehend, with its partners in the South, migratory flows.
In West Africa and the Sahel, several (European) cooperation projects are being developed with the support and expertise of Morocco. Added to this is the growing involvement of Moroccan diplomacy in the Sahel (training of imams, economic and financial support). In this context, Brussels and Paris have been working with this strategic partner, who has returned since 2017 within the bodies of the African Union (Morocco has also benefited from the status of strategic partner with NATO since 2016). .
On this issue, France’s position is unequivocal and is intended to be in line with that of the United Nations and the Security Council. Paris defends the application of the 1991 ceasefire and a political solution by negotiation on the autonomy statute proposed by Morocco in 2007.
Some French elected officials go further and call for France to “follow in Washington’s footsteps” on the Saharaoui file, by pleading the cause of Morocco, considered a major ally in the fight against Islamist terrorism. The trend therefore seems favorable to Morocco, especially as relations with Algeria are historically complex and, to say the least, often tumultuous.
Jérôme Pigné, associate researcher at the Thomas More Institute, president of the Strategic Reflection Network on Security in the Sahel (2r3s) and Yosra Aribi, analyst for the 2r3s.
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