The recent days have witnessed a set of developments indicating an intention to escalate on several axes and in different files that may appear to be completely separate, but some common denominators between them may bear several interpretations in terms of timing.
In the Ukraine war file, it seems that the leaders of NATO decided to escalate by providing Ukraine with qualitative weapons of an offensive nature to prevent any superiority of Russia and to enhance the capabilities of the Ukrainian forces in order to expel the Russian forces from the lands they occupied. Under the pretext of the existence of Russian preparations for an attack in the spring, Western leaderships collapsed to provide Ukraine with Western-made main battle tanks, which experts expect will give the Ukrainian army a qualitative advantage in the battlefields. After receiving responses and pressures, Britain, Germany, France, America, Poland, Norway, Sweden and Finland decided to supply Ukraine with German “Leopard-2”, British “Challenger-2”, American “Abrams” and French “AMX-10” tanks. In addition to a group of Russian-made T-72 tanks.
It is expected that Ukraine will receive between 80 and 120 tanks of these different models during the next three months, and that it will receive more during the year 2023. The goal is to equip the Ukrainian forces with at least two regiments of tanks, in addition to dozens of armored vehicles and combat vehicles, which will give them the ability to launch major attacks. Clear large areas. Ukraine will also receive modern anti-aircraft, ballistic and cruise missile defense systems, which will help it effectively counter Russian missile attacks against strategic infrastructure and installations. The type of weapons provided by “NATO” also aims to thwart Vladimir Putin’s strategic bombing strategy to deplete the Ukrainian steadfastness and defense capabilities. The West provides billions in aid to Ukraine to rebuild the infrastructure and enable the government to provide all services, including education, medical care, and others, to the people. Ukraine has become more like a proxy confrontation arena for NATO against Russia, which is being drained economically and militarily on a daily basis.
The Western escalation against Russia coincided with a European-American escalation against Iran, after the decision of the European Union and other Western countries to impose sanctions on the Iranian “Revolutionary Guard” and Iranian leaders and entities. The declared reason for the sanctions is the Iranian regime’s repressive measures against the demonstrators, but the real reason is the military cooperation between Iran and Russia, through which Tehran provided large numbers of offensive drones to Russia in return for receiving advanced military technology from Moscow. Iran’s entry into the war in Europe will not be without dire consequences that may exceed the estimates of the Iranian leaders.
And when there is an escalation against Iran, this will include all arenas in which Tehran is active with its allies from the opposition forces. It is no coincidence that the demonstrations returned to the Iraqi arena, which is witnessing the collapse of its currency, with the persistence of economic problems. The Iraqi arena witnessed a consensus between the forces supported by Iran and those supported by the West, which led to the cessation of popular protests and the formation of the current government. Her return today is an indication that the effects of this understanding have ended and that the arena will witness an escalation stemming from the financial-economic crisis, which may expand to include the issue of the new election law and setting the date for early legislative elections.
As for the Lebanese arena, where “Hezbollah”, Iran’s most important and strongest ally in the region, witnessed an unprecedented collapse of the local currency, which quickly leads to unprecedented price inflation. The prices of medicine, food, and gasoline change from morning to evening, without action from the ruling authorities, who are clearly powerless to do anything. The investigation file of the Beirut port explosion witnessed a sudden awakening of the judicial investigator, Tariq Al-Bitar, who submitted a legal review according to which he allowed himself to move the investigations after a thirteen-month hiatus. The reaction of the forces affected by the investigations was as expected for those who had inspired Al-Bitar to move at this time. The counter-steps led by Attorney General Ghassan Oweidat to protect the parties against which Al-Bitar was accused will lead to a division in the judicial body and to a major escalation in the street that will be fueled by the financial and economic collapse.
There is a high possibility that the countermeasures of the Lebanese authority will lead to a Western decision to internationalize the port explosion investigation file with the aim of putting pressure on the joints of the ruling authority through the gate of international sanctions. As for the possibility of chaos spreading in Lebanon, it exists, especially with indications of a greater collapse in the Lebanese pound. The cessation of negotiations between Western capitals and Tehran and the rise in the level of tension will be reflected in the presidential file, as Hezbollah may decide to stop efforts to reach an understanding on a consensual president and push forward towards choosing a president from its allied parties in order to continue to take refuge behind the forces of Lebanese legitimacy in confronting the external pressures that take an upward trend. And if “Total” and “Eni” companies freeze or delay gas exploration efforts, this is an indication of a European decision to postpone this issue until after a change or desired goal in Lebanon.
In Syria, Iran’s situation is not good. It has not yet been able to reap the benefits of its support for the regime through economic gains monopolized by the Russian side. In addition, its attempt to deploy qualitative military capabilities to enhance the deterrence factor against Israel has failed as a result of the repeated strikes by Israeli planes that take place under the watchful eyes of the Russians and their missiles. Today, Russia is negotiating the future of Syria with Turkey directly and without any presence of Iran, as if the military alliance between Russia and Iran is on the piece and not comprehensive.
The latest developments in recent days were the largest military maneuvers between Israel and America, which simulated air attacks on long-range targets. Analysts unanimously agree that the aim of these maneuvers is to practice launching joint raids against Iranian nuclear facilities, which are witnessing today enrichment operations of quantities of uranium sufficient to manufacture no fewer than three nuclear bombs. Most observers believe that Iran can fertilize to 90 percent within a week or two, and some believe that it has already done so. No one can confirm or deny what is going on inside these nuclear facilities after Iran closed a few months ago the surveillance cameras of the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors. Observers estimate that Iran needs eighteen months to manufacture and test a nuclear bomb. Accordingly, it is likely that the countdown to an Israeli-American military action against the nuclear facilities has begun, and it will take place before the end of this year. This may explain the conduct of these current joint exercises.
In short, the Ukrainian arena will witness fiercer fighting that will put great pressure on Russia, and the Iraqi and Lebanese arenas will witness a greater financial collapse and inflation that will lead to demonstrations and internal unrest that threaten stability in them. Iran will witness more demonstrations and Western sanctions, while Israel and America are preparing for joint action against nuclear facilities. Iran is the common denominator between the files of countries in the region that are subject to its influence and the Ukrainian file, and the coincidence of escalation in all these arenas may be more than a coincidence.
*according to day
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