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– We’re pretty worried – E24

The housing market has defied the corona pandemic. Broker peaks now fear that it will be too hot.

CONCERNED: Now Carl Geving in NEF fears that the market will go too well.

Boe, Torstein / NTB scanpix

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– Everything indicates that there is a strong housing market for the time being, says CEO of the Norwegian Real Estate Agency (NEF), Carl Geving to E24.

– Sales are relatively fast, and things are sold at good prices. It is clearly a market characterized by the lowest interest rates of all time.

On Friday, July 3, the monthly house price statistics will be presented by Eiendom Norge. After a fall in prices in March and April, the arrows pointed up again in May.

Grethe Meier, CEO of Private Broker, has soaring expectations of June prices.

– I think we’re going to see a price increase. Against all odds, against all chief economists. There is a huge demand for housing now. We have never sold more than 1,695 homes. Now we end up at around 2,000, she says.

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Worthy of growth

A recent survey by Opinion could show that 23 percent of the Norwegian population believe housing prices will increase in the coming month. Broker peaks agree, but not optimistic.

Surveys conducted by the Forecast Center for Sparebank 1 in May indicate that 40 percent of those surveyed believed that house prices would fall in the future. Now the broker peaks fear the opposite.

– We at NEF are quite worried about a new price escalation going forward, says Geving.

– Before the corona there were three years of moderate price development. That’s what we want most.

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In 2016, there was a large growth in Norwegian housing prices, driven by increased share home buyers who got the help of their parents.

– Right now I am very happy with the mortgage regulations. More specifically, I am happy about the point about five times revenue, says Meier, referring to the section which states that the loan customer’s debt should not exceed five times the customer’s income.

The Mortgage Lending Regulations were first implemented in 2017 as a measure to offset strong growth in house prices and household debt. Meier believes the regulations have hindered a large proportion of house price growth, but not everything.

– I am afraid that there may be an increase in the price of housing in Oslo of up to 10 per cent due to lack of housing.

Geving excludes that there is a bubble in the housing market.

“It doesn’t match the realities,” he says.

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Meek, Tore / NTB scanpix

– Buy before you sell

The summer months are usually good months in the housing market.
Last year, the seasonally adjusted price index for second-hand housing rose by 0.9 points from the second to the third quarter.

– How will the market develop in the future?

– There is a lot of evidence that we will have a high level of activity in July and August, says Meier.

Among other things, she points to the low interest rates and the corona situation, as well as an unusual unemployment rate.

– I don’t think growth is a short-term phenomenon. I have great faith in a large housing market going forward. It is mainly those in the hotel and restaurant industry who will become unemployed, and these are already less represented in the housing purchase statistics, she says.

Geving agrees that the market seems to be rising, and encourages home buyers to think differently.

– As the market is now, one should buy before selling. Then you buy at some point while prices are on the rise. Then you sell at a better price.

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