9 February 2021 | by Thai Oil Public Company Limited
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The price of crude oil is likely to increase. After forecasting the US Will be able to pass economic stimulus measures And OPEC Plus continued to reduce production capacity.
Thaioil expects West Texas crude oil prices this week to move around the frame. 53-58 USD per barrel Brent crude oil moves around the frame. 56-61 US dollar per barrel
Outlook of Crude Oil Price (8 – 12 Feb. 64)
The price of crude oil is likely to increase. The latter is expected to stimulate the economy worth 1.9 Trillion US dollars Of President Joe Biden of the US It will be approved later this week. The market will also be boosted by declining crude oil volumes. After OPEC and its allies, due to the clarity of the crude oil production policy, remained in agreement, however, the market was under pressure from the number of COVID-infected cases.-19 Around the world that are constantly increasing As a result, many countries continue to lock down and extend additional time to contain the epidemic.
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Important factors are expected to affect the situation in oil prices this week.:
- The crude oil market is likely to be boosted by US stimulus packages. By the latest President Joe Biden attended a meeting with senators from Republicans. To discuss and negotiate, ask for a vote of support to pass Congress approval. About the new economic stimulus value 9 Trillion US dollars It is expected to be approved by February 8, 64 and will affect the economy and US oil demand. Better recovery
- The amount of crude oil tends to decline. After Reuters reported that OPEC cut crude oil output was agreed in January, with the group’s overall co-operation rate of 103 percent, more than December. That provide cooperation at the level 99%
- Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting Of OPEC and allied countries on 3 Feb. 64 Reported that the Commission also agreed to maintain crude oil production under the original agreement. Which will reduce the production capacity at 2 Million barrels per day And Saudi Arabia will cut production further. 1 Million barrels per day during February – March. 64 The producer group will have a meeting on the meeting date. 4 March 64 To decide on the level of production cuts in April 64 Onwards
- Financial institute Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude in July. 64 Will touch the level 65 US dollar Per barrel, with crude oil demand expected to be higher than the estimated production volume. 900,000 Barrel per day In the first half of the year 2564 Which is a level higher than the previous forecast 500,000 Barrel per day
- United States Energy Information Agency (EIA) US crude oil inventory report for the week ended 29 m.C. 64 Decrease 0 Million barrels to the level 475.7 Million barrels, the lowest level since Mar. 63 In contrast to analysts who expect to increase 0.5 Million barrels, while the production of crude oil in the US Remains stable at the level 10.9 Million barrels per day
- The coronavirus outbreak Still, it is a factor that stresses the economy and the demand for oil. After the number of infected worldwide continues to increase Recently, the Chinese government has issued lockdown measures in some areas. And asked people to refrain from traveling during the Chinese New Year Japan announced an extension of the state of emergency in Tokyo and nine other provinces for another month until March 7. 64 Meanwhile, Malaysia has announced to extend the time to take another lockdown measure. 2 Week until date 18 Feb. 64
- The market remains concerned about a delivery of the COVID-19 vaccine. The delay by AstraZeneca had problems in the vaccine production process at two plants in the Netherlands and Belgium. While Pfizer was unable to deliver the agreed amount of the vaccine to Europe. This could affect the government’s vaccination plan. And economic recovery
- The economies to watch this week include China Consumer Price Index Jan ’64. US Consumer Price Index Jan 64 US unemployment numbers Eurozone industrial production figures for December 64
Summary of the situation of oil prices in the past week (1 – 5 Feb. 64)
West Texas crude oil prices last week rose 4.65. US dollar Come to 56.85 US dollar Per barrel and Brent crude oil prices increased. 3.46 US dollar Come to 59.34 US dollar Per barrel, while Dubai crude oil prices closed an average of 59.05 US dollar per barrel, driven by US crude oil inventories. That fell to the lowest level since March 2020 by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly crude oil inventory report ending Jan. 29 64 The drop was 1.0 million barrels, in line with analysts’ estimates of an increase of 0.5 million barrels. However, the market remains concerned about the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Which has continued to increase in the number of infected people And delayed delivery of the COVID-19 vaccine
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