Weekly Oil report 25 Jan 2021

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Crude oil prices remained high. Respond to US economic stimulus measures And the US dollar is likely to depreciate.

Thaioil expects West Texas crude oil prices this week to move around the frame. 49-54 dollarsUS per barrel Brent crude oil moves around the frame. 52-57 dollarsUS Per barrel

Outlook of Crude Oil Price (25-29 Jan 64)

The price of crude oil is likely to remain at a high level. After being driven by the US dollar That tend to weaken continuously After the Federal Reserve. The easing monetary policy is expected to continue in the next meeting on the 28th. m.C. This includes the US, which is expected to be able to pass the stimulus package soon. Prices are also boosted by accelerating the delivery and vaccination of the coronavirus.-19 However, prices are expected to be pressured by the continued increase in the number of infections. As a result, many countries have introduced measures to control the spread of the virus. In particular, China announced an increase in domestic travel restrictions during the Chinese New Year in early February.

Important factors are expected to affect the situation in oil prices this week.:

• Markets watch over 9 big US economic stimulus measures Trillion US dollars Which is expected to begin entering into force soon After the inauguration of Mr. Joe Biden, President of the United States. The measure will be presented to Congress for approval soon. This will affect the economy and US oil demand. Recovered soon
• Delivery and initiation of vaccination against COVID-19 Continues to increase It is expected that the global economy and oil demand will likely recover in the second half of the year. More than 54.3 million people have been vaccinated against COVID-19 recently.
• Many companies such as Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Astrazeneca Has started to deliver Many countries have already started to inject them for their citizens. The market has watched the company’s vaccine test results. Johnson and Johnson Which is in the final stage of the experiment and the results of the experiment will be expected soon. By the above vaccine 1 Dose only, unlike other company’s vaccines, that are required up to 2 Dosage in the prevention of COVID virus-19
• Oil demand is likely to recover more slowly than the market had expected. After the number of infections continued to increase, with the overall level above 97 Million, resulting in many countries raising the level of lockdown measures to be more intense and longer Especially recently in China, the highest number of new infections in five months has led to lockdowns in areas near Beijing that have a greater impact on people. 20 Millions of people and the announcement of increased travel intensity in the country during the Chinese New Year in early February, the impact on the International Energy Agency (IEA) Cut oil demand forecast for the quarter. 1 Of the year 2564 And of the year 2564 Down the line 600,000 and 300,000 Barrels per day, respectively, resulting in this year. Demand for oil is expected to recover 5 Million barrels per day from a decline in previous year to 8.8 Million barrels per day
• OPEC Plus crude oil production tends to decline. After the producer group maintained the decision to cut production at level 2 Million barrels per day in February and March 64 Including Saudi Arabia further cutting production capacity 1 Million barrels per day in February and March 64 To maintain the level of crude oil at a balanced level. By the latest Saudi There is a plan to reduce the allocation of crude oil to some oil refineries in Asia in February, down around 10% – 26%
• Keep an eye on US crude oil production After manufacturers increase crude oil drilling continuously. Baker Hughes reported the weekly number of U.S. crude oil rigs ended 15. Jan 64 By adjusting the volume to increase continuously for the week 8 Consecutive increase 13 Podium from the previous week To the level 373 However, crude oil production remained lower than the same period of the previous year. As the drilling volume decreased to 53% From previous years
• The economies to watch this week include US GDP 4Q20. U.S. durable goods orders for the month.C. 63 And the Federal Reserve’s interest declaration decision

Summary of the situation of oil prices in the past week (18-22 Jan 64)

West Texas crude oil prices last week dropped 0.09. US dollar Come to 52.27 US dollar Per barrel, while the price of Brent crude oil rose. 0.31 US dollar Come to 55.41 US dollar Per barrel, while Dubai crude oil prices closed an average of 55.29 US dollar per barrel after being driven by the US dollar. The continued weakness and expectations of the US economic stimulus package. 1.9 Trillion US dollars Expected to have passed Congress soon. Following the inauguration of the new US President Joe Biden, prices were also driven by production cuts by OPEC producers and allies, however, prices have been pressured by crude inventories. US Rising 4.4 Million barrels from the previous week, along with concerns over slowing demand for oil. After several countries began to enforce lockdown measures to curb the spread of the COVID virus.-19