Investors have once again had a difficult, somewhat turbulent week for Hadnel. Tensions in the Middle East, the war in the Ukraine seems to have faded into the background but is still very much in play, an ECB that seems to be digging its (interest rate) heels in the sand and of course a whole series of third-quarter figures.
The sentiment is something bearishCompanies that cannot meet expectations are severely punished. The market is not willing, with some exceptions. We won’t use the word ‘end of year rally’ just yet.
This week the AEX made a modest attempt to make up for some of the previous price damage, but on balance still closed lower than a week ago, although the decline is extremely limited.
Damrak
The Damrak started off slightly positively, managed to stay in the green for a large part of the day, but did not maintain this at the end of trading. Although the price movement on the AEX remained limited, there were quite a few individual funds with more movement.
This is how the music publisher’s figures fell A G was not to the taste Adyen downgraded again and investors were left disappointed Unilever. ASMI, DSM-Firmenich in Philips provided some counterbalance.
Many mid-cap funds have been seriously demolished this year, but today a number of punished funds were moved nicely higher. We call one SBMO, Signify in Van Lanschot as examples. Remarkably, it was relatively defensive GOES Peet’s among the biggest decliners.
Finally, the smaller funds presented a rather unclear picture with decent profits Fastned, TomTom in Vastnedwhile Ebusco was turned down again.
The AEX ended the week on a negative note, losing 0.7% to close at a level of more than 714 points.
Top three risers/fallers
Pharming
Things are going quite well for Leiden’s Pharming. The third quarter figures showed encouraging growth in turnover, Ruconest sales were strong and the first turnover from Joenja is now in the books. Investors will be allowed to do this in the near future otherwise as expected:
Sales of Ruconest boost Pharming IEX Premium turnover via @IEXnl
— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) October 27, 2023
Amazon
Amazon has had a strong quarter, mainly thanks to its e-commerce activities. AWS’s growth was again moderate, but profitability did improve. The fact that cloud growth lagged behind competitors Microsoft and Alphabet is probably partly because Amazon is lagging behind when it comes to AI capabilities. More at IEX Premium:
Amazon buys AI in IEX Premium via @IEXnl
— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) October 27, 2023
Meta
Meta’s quarterly figures evoke some déjà vu. The results for the past quarter are neat: a turnover growth of 23.2% to $34.1 billion and a profit increase of no less than 163.5% to $11.6 billion. This increase is mainly due to a reduction in expenditure. Meta has significantly cut costs, including by reducing its workforce. It now benefits from this:
Meta wants to invest more but is uncertain about the turnover in 2024 IEX Premium via @IEXnl
— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) October 27, 2023
Sanofi
Sanofi shares fell sharply on the stock market today. The French pharmaceutical company is generally one of the least volatile shares of the CAC 40, but that is different this time. There is currently a minus of no less than 17% on the board. The trigger is not so much the disappointing third-quarter figures, but a disappointing strategy update. A further analysis from the Investors Desk can be found here:
Ugly setback for Sanofi IEX Premium via @IEXnl
— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) October 27, 2023
Vastned
The trading update of the Vastned retail fund seems like a bit of a hassle, because the fund doesn’t actually say anything and apparently doesn’t want to say much either. Perhaps logical, because it is in the middle of a divestment program and discussions about refinancing. Still, investors should be able to get a little more guidance. A further analysis from the IEX Investor Desk:
Vastned: focus on refinancing and divestments of IEX Premium via @IEXnl
— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) October 27, 2023
Unibail
Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW) also performed well operationally in the third quarter. Organic gross rental growth even accelerated and amounted to a nice 11.5% over the first nine months. URW therefore succeeds well in passing on inflation. There is still no news about major divestments in the United States. More at IEX Premium:
Still no clarity about dividend at Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield IEX Premium via @IEXnl
— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) October 27, 2023
IEX Beleggerspodcast
It’s Friday again and that means another genuine IEX Investor Podcast for the regular visitors of IEX! A lot is happening on the financial markets now, especially with the many third-quarter figures and therefore more than enough to discuss, such as: Adyen, Unilever, Microsoft, Philips, Flow Traders and more.
The podcast can be listened to here:
IEX BeleggersPodcast: This feels like a bear market IEXnl via @IEXnl
— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) October 27, 2023
Wall Street
In the US, the financial markets opened mixed, with some losses for the Dow Jones and gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Ford (- 9%) suffered a setback after trading yesterday and also the oil majors Exxon Mobil (- 2 in Chevron (-5%) were somewhat disappointing. A solid profit was reserved for it Amazon (+8%) in Intel (+ 9%).
At the end of Europe, the Dow Jones was down 0.1%, the S&P 500 gained 0.4% while the Nasdaq rebounded 1.3%.
Annuities
A relatively calm day also on the international bond markets. Most interest rates took a modest step back. This will probably lead to some relief, especially in Italy, although an interest rate of 4.8% is also unbearable for the Italians in the long term.
Ten-year interest rate in the Netherlands 3.19% (minus 2 basis points) Ten-year interest rate in Germany 2.82% (minus 3 basis points) Ten-year interest rate in France 3.46% (minus 2 basis points) Ten-year interest rate in Italy 4.80% (minus 6 basis points) Ten-year interest rate in the US 4.85% (plus 1 basis point) Ten-year UK interest rate 4.59% (minus 1 basis point)
Broad market
The broader market presented a relatively calm picture, with few really notable outliers. The sentiment is certainly not good yet, at least when viewed with a bullish view. Small losses, mostly in Europe, a divided Wall Street and little action, although the VIX is creeping towards 20. Gold and oil are barely moving, as is bitcoin, while the euro/dollar stabilizes around 1.06.
The Damrak
DSM-Firmenich (+ 1.2%) has been in the corner where the blows are falling for quite some time and can be seen as fall angel. Rightly so, that is question two
Unilever (-2.3%) may have suffered from an uninspiring strategy update from the new CEO, but the Q3 figures were ok
A G (-7.2%) did not fully meet market expectations with its Q3 figures
AF-KLM (+ 0.4%) also had figures, but cannot be taken seriously as an investment, although the Dutch government undoubtedly thinks otherwise
Corbion (-0.1%) is in fairly difficult weather and the expected sale of an American part is delayed
Signify (+ 5.1%) achieved a slightly better than expected margin in Q3, but the results were certainly not brilliant
B&S Group (-1.2%) suddenly shot up late Friday afternoon last week, no news, and is now falling back just as easily
Pharming (+ 0.7%) presented a solid set of Q3 figures yesterday and have been rewarded for this for a second day in a row
Vastned (+ 7.0%) only seems to be rewarded secondarily for yesterday’s Q3 figures. Action on the local market GeoJunxion (+ 21.4%) who want to sell all their activities
Advice (source: Guruwatch.nl)
Agenda 30 October
06:30 Producer prices – September (NL)
06:30 Producer confidence – October (NL)
11:00 Consumer confidence and economic sentiment – Oct final (EUR)
13:00 McDonald’s – Third quarter figures (US)
14:00 Inflation – October vlpg (Dld)
And then this
Amazon sees reluctant consumers
Amazon is in wary mood ahead of the key holiday shopping season. The e-commerce titan said that consumers were being cautious about spending pic.twitter.com/BGvJAHtppY
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 27, 2023
Germany’s energy transition far from successful
Good Morning from Germany where the transition to green energy is costing not only consumers but also shareholders of green energy comps. For example, Siemens Energy saw a significant drop in its stock market value, losing ~€20bn from ATH. In fact, when you add up the values of… pic.twitter.com/J0vhwe5O11
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 27, 2023
The market usually misses the point about the Fed
The market is almost always wrong about what the Fed will do next, Wall Street economist warns
— MarketWatch (@MarketWatch) October 27, 2023
Quality has no price
A £760 steak from Japan must be very well done | opinion
— Financial Times (@FT) October 27, 2023
Chevron’s figures fall short
Chevron profit fell short of analysts’ expectations despite strengthening oil and fuel markets
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) October 27, 2023
Sanofi is disappointing investors
Breakingviews – Investors reject Sanofi’s cure to sickly valuation
— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 27, 2023
Martin Crum is a senior investment analyst. The information in this column is not intended as professional investment advice or as a recommendation to make certain investments. Crum can take positions on the financial markets.
2023-10-27 18:17:10
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