Par
Jeremy Attali
Published on Nov 3, 2024 at 6:32 a.m.
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While the weather has been yo-yoing in recent weeks in Provence, alternating between intense rains and storms and periods of great mildness, a site allows you to estimate what the weather will be like, in each commune, in 2030, 2050 or even, in 2100.
In this little game, what about Marseille? Here are all the results.
Rising temperatures in Marseille
Launched by Météo France, the site Climadiag allows you to estimate the weather in the years to come, municipality by municipality. Concerning the Marseille city, unsurprisingly, the first element to remember is the rise in temperatures to come. Already started, it will become more and more spectacular over the years.
In 2100, the average temperature in the Provençal capital is thus estimated at 26.3 degrees. The number of tropical nights each year will increase from 36 today to 98 in 2100.
The average temperature in summer in Marseille
- 2024: 22.4 degrees
- 2030: 23.9 degrees
- 2050: 24.6 degrees
- 2100: 26.3 degrees
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In winter, the average temperature could exceed 11 degrees by the end of the century, compared to 8 today. Cold waves would no longer exist.
Rare rains and increasing fires
With these increasingly hot summers, rain should become increasingly rare. Currently, if it rains, on average, 63 mm of rain on the Phocaean city in summer, in 2100, it would only rain 46 mm during the summer season.
Another element to take into account is the risk of forest fires, which is dangerously increasing. Currently, 22 days per year are affected by significant risk and this could increase to 43 each year in 2100.
Natural risks in Marseille
The site also highlights the natural risks that concern Marseille: forest fires, but also submersion and coastal erosion and shrinkage-swelling of clays and floods.
Another issue also identified in the Marseille city, sensitivity to the phenomenon ofurban heat islandwhich can further increase these projections, in the city, by at least one degree.
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