The weather conditions remain marked by very strong thermal amplitudes until the end of the month, with a risk of frost during the coming week followed by a possible heat stroke. Then, the month of May promises to be lastingly hot, with stormy sequences. A cooler and choppier period is expected in mid-May before dry, warm weather sets in around the Ascension Bridge.
Week of April 24 to 30: risk of frost followed by a heat stroke
The coming week will be very mixed and quite disturbed. Temperatures will remain below average in the north and above average in the south. Showers will circulate especially north of the Loire. Between the disturbances, cold air will descend over the northern half of France and a brief frost is possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. Then, in connection with a strong heat wave present on the Iberian Peninsula, warm air could rise over our country for the end of the month and the beginning of May. An early heat peak is therefore possible at this time.
Week of May 1 to 7: hot and stormy weather
To date, the reliability is limited regarding the intensity and duration of the heat stroke, but the beginning of May promises to be summer. However, a stormy evolution is expected by the west and south-west. After the passage of these storms, temperatures will decline but will still remain above average. Heavy weather could thus persist for several days. The Mediterranean rim should stay away from these stormy disturbances. The last holidaymakers should then take advantage of a fairly summery atmosphere, contrasting sharply with this relatively cool month of April.
Week of May 8 to 14: thunderstorms then cool weather
The weather should clearly deteriorate over the country with the return of stormy rains, especially in the west, while the dry and sunny weather will be more lasting in the east. The atmosphere would be quite moist, even heavy at times. Then, around mid-May, a new cold drop could position itself over France, causing unstable weather with showers, accompanied by a general drop in temperatures. If the risk of frost no longer seems relevant, the snow could make a late appearance in the middle mountains.
Week of May 15 to 21: hot and sunny weather?
After the unstable sequence in mid-May, the Azores high could swell again towards France, advecting air from the Iberian Peninsula. This pattern would be conducive to the establishment of sunny and warm weather in view of the Ascension Bridge on May 18. It could be, if confirmed, the first heat wave of the season in France. At this time, the reliability of this evolution remains limited and will have to be confirmed in our next updates.
This four-week trend shows that the drought problem should not disappear in the southeast, quite the contrary, since despite a few storms, the accumulations will remain insignificant. Elsewhere, watering will be very heterogeneous from one region to another depending on the storms. As for temperatures, after a month of April that was probably a little cooler than average by around -1°C, the month of May looks set to be warmer than normal by around +1.5 to +2°C.
