If on the one hand there are those who enjoy the sun, on the beach or in the mountains, on the other there are those who look apprehensively with their noses upwards, towards a clear sky that catapults us back a few months. Yes, because this beginning of November, after the rains of September and October, reminds us more of summer than autumn. And it also confirms it mercury above 20 degrees in the city and slightly lower in the mountains.
It’s the climate change which stretches “the summer of San Martino” beyond all reason. Even here in Friuli Venezia Giulia we return to the sea. The high temperatures of these days have brought tourists and citizens back to enjoy the sun and the walk along the shoreline. On the occasion of the All Saints weekend, mountain tourist resorts such as Sappada, Forni and Tarvisio were also taken by storm. Full houses in bars and restaurants even in the city for those who chose not to leave and stay at home.
Above average
As you can see from the image below, taken by Arpa Osmer Fvg, current temperatures are well above average. In 2004, one of the hottest years of the century in Friuli Venezia Giulia, the highest peak was recorded with an average temperature of 18.5°. Data far exceeded these days where the average temperature exceeds 20 degrees in the hills and mountains and reaches 24 degrees along the coast, with a minimum that does not go above 9 degrees on the coolest days.
And it is therefore not surprising to see how on this first day of November a Udine the average temperature is above 20 degrees, equal to Pordenone e Gorizia. Slightly cooler Trieste which, thanks to the sea breeze, stops at the recorded 18.6 degrees. It’s hot too Grade e Lignano stormed by tourists and residents for the bridge. The temperatures in the mountains where on the mountain are worrying Zoncolan 14.5° are recorded, a Piancavallo 15.7°, on Luxaries ea Sappada the mercury column exceeds 13°.
The hottest of all? According to Osmer’s findings, it is Cividale with an average of 22.2°.
The anticyclone
But why is all this happening? After the wave of bad weather in September and October, a very long phase of good weather has arrived in the region which could remain stable well beyond the first week of November. According to forecasts, a robust anticyclone has established itself over central and southern Europe, bringing with it a period of high pressure and dry weather. The phenomenon will continue for many days, temporarily closing the season of autumn disturbances.
Temperatures will tend to remain above the seasonal average, particularly in the mountains, while in the valleys and plains the accumulation of humidity in the lower layers will limit the temperature increase. This will give rise to thermal inversion phenomena, with lower temperatures in the lower layers compared to the higher areas. The air mass of sub-tropical origin, which would have brought significantly higher temperatures in summer, will favor only a slight rise in autumn, limited precisely by the stagnation of humidity.
As reported by 3B Meteo, the polar front, which has so far remained at rather low latitudes, has favored a period of lasting bad weather between Western Europe and the Mediterranean. However, with the new anticyclone, this front will move further north, leaving room for stable conditions over much of Europe. Furthermore, it is expected that the jet stream, the high-altitude air current that influences the climate, will intensify, helping to consolidate the position of the anticyclone, which will have its center over Great Britain in the first days of November. This system will deflect Atlantic disturbances towards the northeast, in the direction of the Scandinavian peninsula, and then make them descend towards the Balkans and the Black Sea, thus keeping Italy safe from waves of bad weather.
We also return to the beach in Lignano
Tourists in Sappada
The weather forecast
The anticyclone present over central-northern Europe will also guarantee stable weather in the region for several days. Greater humidity will stagnate in the lower layers between Friday evening and Saturday morning, while cooler and drier east-northeast currents will flow in between Saturday and Sunday. Osmer’s forecasts in detail:
- Friday 1 November. Clear or slightly cloudy skies due to possible haze. In the evening and at night, possible formation of mists or fogs on the lower plain, especially in the Pordenone area.
- Saturday 2 November. During the night and in the morning, possible presence of mists or fogs on the lower plain, especially in the Pordenone area. During the day, mostly clear skies in all areas; from the afternoon-evening moderate Bora will begin to blow on the coast and in the eastern areas, even sustained during the night in Trieste.
- Sunday 3 November. Clear or slightly cloudy skies due to possible haze; in the Tarvisio area there is a probable presence of low clouds, especially in the morning. Moderate Bora will blow on the coast and in the eastern areas, with even sustained gusts in Trieste, especially during the night and in the morning.
Heat and floods are linked
The question arises spontaneously: will this anomalous heat have consequences in the future? The images of the stacked cars and the mud from Valencia are shown on TV and the thrilling stories of the survivors are heard. Could it happen here too? We asked Luca Mercallia climatologist known to the public above all for his television appearances on Che tempo che fa, is convinced that although the North East – as well as the entire Mediterranean area – is exposed to the risk of floods, which will be increasingly frequent as the climate becomes more impactful, it is possible to achieve the goal that these extreme events no longer cause victims.
«Today is October 31st, fifty years ago there was frost, now we are in short sleeves… The increasingly hotter and longer summers cause all the heat to accumulate in the sea, which then returns this energy to us with interest in the case of floods. More evaporating seawater causes these extreme rains. The future will see further increases in temperature and therefore extreme events. But here we have a choice: if we reduce global emissions we can stop the increase, but if we let global emissions run, the temperature will also follow, with increases of 4-5 degrees by the end of the century. But the risks do not only concern extreme phenomena…”.
