MAGA, Act 3. After winning the 2016 presidential election and then losing the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election Tuesday night. From his residence in Mar-a-Lago, Fla., he accused Joe Biden to be the commander in chief of a “nation in decline”. But before dreaming of a return match against his successor, Donald Trump, the target of multiple legal inquiries, he will already have to emerge victorious from a fratricidal Republican primary. With knives sharpened by the poor performance of his midterm colts and the emergence of Ron DeSantis as a formidable prospect.
“To make America great and glorious again, I announce my candidacy for the presidential election this evening,” Donald Trump launched in front of several hundred guests, in an atmosphere far less overexcited than at his MAGA meetings. He was also generally disciplined for most of the 60-minute speech, not mentioning that the 2020 election – or midterm elections – had been “stolen” or “rigged,” contrary to his custom.
“On the Verge of Nuclear War”
By promising the “return” of America, Donald Trump has painted an idyllic picture of his first term, evoking a country at peace, prosperous and respected on the international scene. In contrast, the former head of state, wearing his traditional red tie, did not have harsh enough words to denounce the supremacy of Joe Biden. A country plunged into violence and crime, where soaring prices are strangling American families, where “millions” of illegal immigrants cross the border with Mexico, was indignant in front of a row of American flags.
“Joe Biden embodies the failures of the left and the corruption of Washington,” accused the former businessman in his combative speech. The Democratic president “is bringing us to the brink of nuclear war,” Donald Trump said, assuring that war in Ukraine “would never have happened” if he had been president.
A candidate surrounded by judicial inquiries
Donald Trump is entering the primary race two years before the election, seven months earlier than in 2015, when he was a political novice. Why such a hurry? “Because he wants to protect himself from prosecutors,” attorney George Conway, a well-known Trump critic and husband of his former adviser Kellyanne Conway, said in an editorial.
In fact, even if the parliamentary commission of inquiry into the assault on the Capitol were to disappear in January with the narrow Republican majority in the House, Donald Trump will be a candidate surrounded by justice. Who is investigating his role in the violence of January 6, 2021, his financial affairs, his management of the White House files or the pressure exerted on election agents.
His candidacy doesn’t stop the Justice Department from indicting him. But the political bar to overcome to justify a prosecution is higher than ever in the face of a candidate who denounces a “persecution” by the authorities and the FBI. Technically, he could also be a candidate if charged or even convicted: only Congress has the power to declare a politician ineligible. He will still have to win a Republican primary that promises to be bloody.
An ad in a “weak position”
When he picked Tuesday’s date, Donald Trump thought he was riding a Republican wave during the midterms and claimed to be the primary architect. But despite record inflation and an unpopular Joe Biden, conservatives are expected to have only a narrow majority of four or five seats in the House and have failed to win back the Senate. Worse, Donald Trump’s colts, who had made the so-called “stolen” election the heart of their campaign, were pushed back in swing states, particularly Pennsylvania, Nevada and even Arizona, where Kari Lakes is leaning towards the post of governor.
At the same time, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, hailed by Rupert Murdoch as “the future” of Republicans, was re-elected to the presidency. A victory that catapulted him in front of Donald Trump for the primaries, with the support of 41% of Republicans, against 39% of the former president, according to a YouGov poll.
DeSantis is far from the only one with ambitions. Mike Pence, who publishes his memoirs, and accuses Donald Trump of having “endangered (his) family” during the assault on Capitol Hill, Liz Cheney, the nemesis of the former president, the ex-CIA head Mike Pompeo, former US could also start the UN ambassador Nikki Haley or the African American senator from South Carolina, Tim Scott. Chris Sununu, the moderate governor of New Hampshire, was the first to attack Donald Trump’s early announcement Tuesday night: “I’m not even sure he’s the favorite (after the midterm). He’s launching from a position of weakness. Watch out not to underestimate Donald Trump.In 2016, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Marco Rubio found out the hard way.
