Loan demand at record high despite rising interest rates
This year’s ‘record net profit’ forecast
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It is expected that the four main financial groups will achieve their highest performance in the third quarter of this year due to the impact of the ‘interest business’ in the banking sector. This is because major banks have increased lending interest rates significantly to manage home loans, while deposit interest rates have been gradually decreasing.
Usually, when interest rates are cut, interest income decreases due to a reduction in deposit and loan margins, but it has been noted that the financial authorities’ household debt management policy encouraged banks to increase lending rates, resulting in ‘reflection profit’.
According to the financial information company FnGuide on the 21st, the market forecast for the net profit of the four major financial holding companies (KB, Shinhan, Hana, and Woori Financial) in the third quarter of this year was 4.7874 trillion. This is an increase of 7.8% from the third quarter of last year.
KB Financial Group is expected to maintain its position as a leading financial institution. It is expected that the company’s net profit in the third quarter will be 1.502 trillion won, an increase of 11.9% compared to the same period last year.
In addition, Shinhan Financial Group‘s net profit is expected to increase by 12.1% to KRW 1.3665 trillion, while Hana Financial Group’s net profit is expected to increase by 6.5% to KRW 1.0256 trillion.
However, in the case of Woori Financial Group, net profit in the third quarter was KRW 893.3 billion, a decrease of 2.7% from a year ago, and a slight decrease in performance is expected.
Some analysts say, ironically, that the ‘back and forth’ lending rules of the financial authorities contributed to the performance of the financial holding companies in the third quarter.
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Several financial industry officials said, “When the financial authorities ordered the regulation of household debt, all commercial banks began to suppress demand by raising loan interest rates. However, as a result of the second phase of pressure of DSR, etc. to cancel, there was a huge level of demand for the last trains, and loans went up again.” Pin himself.
In fact, the bank’s mortgage interest rate base, which fell to the 2% range at the end of June, has now risen to the 4% range.
Furthermore, although demand for housing-related loans has increased significantly due to expectations of a rise in real estate prices, the stock market view is that the immediate impact on performance will not be significant as due to the additional interest rates resulting from deflating property prices. house loans.
In fact, since the 18th, the fixed interest rates for home mortgage loans at the four commercial banks linked to the four main financial holding companies ranged between 4.15 and 5.72% per annum, with the lower end rising by 0.160 percentage points . compared to a week ago when the base interest rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points.
In addition, the growth of corporate lending seems to be holding up.
Choi Jeong-wook, an analyst at Hana Securities, predicted in a report, “Despite the decline in net interest margin, the rate of decline in interest income will be limited as the rate of loan growth very high. “
Another positive variable is that financial property companies are able to save loan loss costs as the additional supply burden due to poor real estate project financing (PF) is not as great as initially feared.
Securities firms believe that the top four financial holding companies will achieve their highest annual performance ever this year.
The market forecast for this year’s net profit of the four major financial holding companies is a total of 16.917 trillion. This is an increase of 11.8% over last year, and this is the first time that net profit has reached nearly 17 trillion.
A banking industry official said, “As the interest rate trading controversy flared up last year, it may be possible to repeat the public funding for living in the past in did the banking sector offer 2.1 trillion in refunds with interest, etc.,” saying, “However, the method of offering a certain share of net profit for the period as it was at the beginning of this year to raise
Meanwhile, KB Financial Group plans to announce its third quarter performance on the 24th, Shinhan Financial Group and Woori Financial Group on the 25th, and Hana Financial Group on the 29th.
2024-10-21 01:22:00
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