Latvia is also following these events. The Foreign Affairs Committee of the Saeima, chaired by Rihards Kols (National Union), also met in a closed session to discuss the events in Ukraine.
Is the concern about the possible escalation of the conflict in Ukraine really justified, or is it just one of many possible scenarios?
This set of events, which has been observed in recent weeks not only by Ukrainian but also by NATO and EU services and officials, is more than a sufficient cause for concern. The concentration of Russian military forces on the border with Ukraine at a time when Europe is focusing primarily on the ongoing pandemic outbreak and events on the Polish-Belarusian border against the rhetoric of Russian authorities and officials in recent weeks also further military escalation. The artificially created migrant crisis on the external border between Belarus and the European Union may also be a cover for some of Russia’s planned new actions against Ukraine. Russia has previously shown the ability to move and mobilize relatively large military forces over long distances.
The rapid redeployment may not indicate a large potential conflict with Ukraine, as Ukraine is now much more prepared than it was seven years ago, but it could certainly lead to a wider security crisis in the region. The current situation is that tens of thousands of Russian troops, including the armed forces and elite ground units, have taken up positions near the Ukrainian border. It has been found that Russian troops sometimes carry out their deployment at night to hide their movements. Earlier this month, US officials warned NATO allies that another Russian invasion of Ukraine was possible.
It has been said that Russia is helping Belarus to heat up the situation on the European Union’s eastern border so that less attention is paid to Ukraine. Do you agree with this view of analysts?
Even compared to the events earlier this year, tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to rise. We are receiving serious indications from various quarters, both from the Ukrainian military intelligence service and from NATO and member states. What is happening in Europe today, both at the external borders and in terms of energy prices, including the Kremlin’s rhetoric, follows a very similar scenario to Russia in 2014, when an unprecedented migration crisis broke out on Europe’s southern border and Russia attacked, occupied and annexed the Crimea. The energy crisis that Gazprom is trying to exacerbate is one of the Russian government’s geopolitical weapons. The hybrid attack on Europe is aimed at Russia’s direct blessing, if not at Russia’s initiative. This problem has a direct impact on the whole of Europe. Yes, I agree with the analysts. As mentioned by the US Secretary of State [Entonijs] Blinken – There are fears that Russia may make a serious mistake in trying to repeat what it did in 2014 when it gathered forces along the border, entered sovereign territory of Ukraine and did so without falsely claiming to be provoked.
Is Latvia and the international community, in general, ready to provide more support and assistance to Ukraine in condemning Russia if necessary?
I think so. We should focus our response in the economic, diplomatic and military spheres, including reducing Russia’s access to international funding, using strategic oil reserves, and securing Western arms supplies to Ukraine. There are a number of ways to support. The Kremlin is experimenting on several “fronts” to see how far it can go without a painful backlash. This means that for the West – in this case us, NATO, the EU – the biggest possible mistake would be not to react to Russia’s provocations at all or to react slowly and gently. We have a number of effective tools at our disposal.
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