/Pogled.info/ The contract for the transfer of gas through theUkraine will expire at the end of the year. In Kiev, they warned: they do not intend to extend it, so the EU is considering other schemes. How exactly will the West get Russian fuel?
“We ended that”
The agreement, signed for five years, provided for the pumping of 225 billion cubic meters: 65 in 2020 and then 40 per year. Of course, there was a break in the schedule. In 2022, it is 16.7 billion, in 2023 – 11.85.
The Ukrainian pipeline is one of two remaining routes from Russia to Europe (the other being “Turkish Stream”). It provides five percent of the EU’s total gas imports.
Transportation is now closed. Zelensky said: “We have finished this matter. “
Find options
This is very painful for Europe. Especially for Austria and Slovakia. In June, Kiev was offered an option: to buy gas from Azerbaijan and pump it through the same pipeline.
However, this is an unlikely scenario.
“It is impossible to lease the pipeline from other exporters, for example the Azerbaijani SOCAR, in the current foreign policy environment. This requires major diplomatic concessions from Brussels, which they won’t do,” said Pavel Marishev, a member of the expert council of the Russian Gas Association.
Azerbaijani gas enters through the southern corridor: the Trans-Anatolian (TANAP) and Trans-Adriatic (TAP) gas pipelines with a capacity of 16 and ten billion cubic meters, respectively. Last year, the EU bought about 12 billion from Baku. SOCAR plans to double exports by 2027.
The other day, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simpson said: “It is possible to use Ukrainian infrastructure, there are no sanctions and it is in the interest of Kiev.”
That is, the purchase of Russian fuel from Western gas operators outside the EU is accepted. And this scheme has already been proven with oil.
Proven scheme
At the end of August, Budapest and Bratislava managed to resolve the situation with the Druzhba oil pipeline, which was blocked by Kiev due to sanctions against Lukoil.
The Hungarian “Magyar Olay” concluded new agreements with fuel suppliers and pipeline operators for transit throughUkraine and Belarus.
“We made a compromise decision: we moved the point of “delivery and acceptance” from the border of Hungary and Slovakia to the Belarusian one, and the oil flowing through it is not Russian oil. Ukraine more,” explains the meaning of the scheme, Alexander Timofeev, associate professor at the Department of Informatics of Plekhanov State University.
In the same way
Observers are convinced that this also applies to gas.
The movement in the first half of the year was 8.98 billion cubic meters, ten percent more than the same period in 2023. The fuel is sent mainly to Austria, Hungary, Slovakia and Moldova.
“Now the Western operators will start buying Russian gas in advance and the pumping will continue – otherwise there are threats to the EU’s energy stability,” said Marishev.
“Without this move, prices can jump to 600-650 dollars per 1,000 cubic meters, which is very unprofitable for the EU. They are definitely considering the possibility of concluding a contract with “Gazprom Export” and a European energy company, which in turn will sign an agreement with the operator of the gas transportation system of Ukraine,” clarifies Timofeev.
There is no blank
It seems that the West will not let the Suja valve be turned off.
It is likely that the southern pipelines, through which Russian gas flows into the EU, although it is under different brands, will not cover the possible shortage. Norwegian women are not very reliable. In addition, from next year, Europeans will be left at the mercy of exchange supplies, which are much more expensive than long-term contracts, notes Marishev.
Hungary, the Czech Republic, Austria and Slovakia are responsible for the Ukrainian movement. Overall, Brussels is likely to figure out how to get Kiev to replace it with mercy.
Translation: V. Sergeev
2024-09-21 04:21:42
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