We have not fought the threat of Covid – El Financiero

I do not know if it has happened to you, but many people, already tired, with good reason, of so many months of pandemic, behave more and more as if this were already a matter of the past and we were without risk.

An example of this is that, according to the reports of vehicular traffic from Mexico City, towards the end of May, in some days the levels that existed prior to the beginning of the confinement last year were already exceeded.

This fact could be taken as an optimistic indicator, of a return to normality, if we were certain that the risk of further infections no longer exists.

However, this is not the case.

As of June 1, 31.8 million doses of vaccines had been applied in Mexico. However, only 12.6 million people already have the full vaccination schedule.

If the goal were to immunize 75 percent of the population to achieve so-called herd or herd immunity, it would take 94 million people to be vaccinated.

That is, the current percentage equals 13.4 percent of that target population. Even if we add another 9.5 million with, at least the first dose, the percentage would be 23.5 percent.

Some bet that there is another high percentage of people who have developed natural immunity because they have been infected and recovered. Serological surveys carried out indicate the presence of antibodies in 25 percent of the population examined.

The problem with this type of immunity is the uncertainty of its duration and the doubts of its strength, which is why those who already had Covid have not been excluded from the vaccination schemes.

But, even being optimistic and considering that 25 percent plus 23.5 percent with at least one vaccine, we would still be below 50 percent immunity.

In other words, around 23 million people would still be exposed to contagion, a still very large number.

And, if we are more conservative in the estimates, the risk would be for several tens of millions more.

Enough experiences of outbreaks have been seen around the world, in countries that seemed to be doing quite well in controlling the virus, to take the risk seriously.

Let’s look at some examples.

In November of last year, Brazil had reached just over 13 thousand new cases per day, a similar number to May 2020, but there was a rebound that brought the figure to 77 thousand at the end of last March, when it reached the peak.

Colombia had managed to drop to just under 3,500 new daily cases last March, comparable to those of June 2020, but the rebound occurred and today they are at the worst moment, with more than 22,000 new cases per day.

Argentina had managed to reduce infections to 5 thousand 500 new daily cases last February and today they are with almost 33 thousand, at the worst point of the pandemic.

There are only three countries in the region whose example should serve to avoid trusting us. There are others in various regions of the world.

In Mexico, recent weekly averages indicate around 2,400 new daily cases, a figure similar to that of the second half of May last year.

But there are indications that in some parts of the country there have been clear outbreaks, and for this reason, there is a risk that the infections could spread due to a foreseeable increase in mobility due to the return to face-to-face classes next week.

For a change, we do not see that the government places any emphasis on the need to maintain essential sanitary measures to prevent the growth of infections.

The emphasis seems placed only on the issue of vaccination, which obviously has more electoral revenue.

So, as I have told you on other occasions, against what it may seem, the pandemic has not ceased to be a threat.

That is why we better take care of ourselves, because the authorities will not do it.

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