Few experts, gurus and economists thought that at the beginning of 2022 the Euribor, the reference index for millions of mortgages in Spain, would not only enter positive territory, but that it would alsowould exceed 3%.
This datum assumes that for all of 2022 it increased by 3.48 points and that it remains at levels not seen since 2008. It should be taken into account that the index started the year at -0.5% and, even with an uptick that also reached the positive, very few predicted that the year would end at that level. And is that the Euribor rose by just over 3.3 points from January to November.
But, as they say, calm always comes after the storm. And after the last meeting of the European Central Bank, in which it was decided to raise the price of money by another 50 basis points and bring it to 2%, it seems that in 2023 there will be no significant increases.
The forecast panel elaborated by the Fundación de las Cajas de Ahorros (Funcas) on the basis of 19 analysis services indicates that the Euribor could settle at an average of 3.1% in mid-2023, and then drop slightly. “The rise we’ve seen in Euribor throughout the year It was something absolutely exceptional which is outside the market dynamics; It is something we have never seen in the history of the Euribor”, says the director of Mortgages of iAhorro, Simone Colombelli.
For its part, investment firm Edmond de Rothschild AM believes “the economic data reinforces the idea of slower rate hikes,” so it doesn’t expect the Euribor to continue rising as it has this year.
Juan Villén, director general of idealista mortgages, points out that “it is very dangerous to assume that inflation is already under control and that rates will remain stable in 2023. Historically, inflation takes several years to be controlled, so we can live perfectly the 2023 with rates above current rates Inflation by definition should be below rates, and is still well above them.
2% to 4%
Some analysts expect it to stagnate at 2.8%, while others believe it will most likely hit 3.5% at the end of June. “The average Euribor in December 2022 is around 3%, so it’s not at all crazy to believe that this index could rise by 0.70 points until next June,” says Olivia Feldman, co-founder of the financial comparator HelpMyCash.
Iñaki Unsain, president of the Spanish Association of Personal Shoppers (Aepsi), calls for calm and explains that “a Euribor of around 2% would be normal”. Unsain adds that “what’s atypical has been the negative interest rates we’ve been in at a European level in recent years.”
The most pessimistic is Bankinter. In its latest Euribor forecast update, it estimates the index will hit 4% by the end of next year, although it will drop to 2.20% in 2024.
Other banks, on the other hand, prefer not to speculate. However, sources from the financial sector in our country follow in the footsteps of other analysts and indicate that “They don’t expect big increases in the Euribor” face 2023, leaving behind the previous year’s storm.
