/ world right now information/ After failing to attain important success within the Zaporizhzhya steppes, Ukraine centered its efforts in one other – sudden route. Kiev hopes to vary the state of affairs in its favor because of the newest sort of weapons. What are VSU planning?
“To destroy as a lot as doable”
In 9 months of bloody preventing in Ukraine, lower than 1,300 sq. kilometers modified fingers, the New York Occasions estimates.
“The entrance line has hardly moved, and a breakthrough by both facet appears extra unattainable than ever,” the publication acknowledged.
On the identical time, regardless of the extensively trumpeted counteroffensive of the Ukrainian armed forces, the Russian troops occupied much more territory than the Ukrainians – 489 sq. kilometers.
Based on the authors of the article, battles of attrition are extra worthwhile for Russia, which has an nearly threefold benefit in manpower and on the identical time is in a well-organized protection.
“The technique is to permit the Ukrainians to make a breakthrough. Many Ukrainian fighters and NATO tools are dying,” the publication quoted army skilled from King’s School London Marina Miron as saying.
Western observers worry that the suicide assaults will put on down Kiev and the initiative will shift to Moscow.
“Rewind to the German Spring Offensive in 1918, close to the top of the First World Conflict. The German military dealt blow after blow to the Allies, achieved restricted success, however bled to demise,” wrote Forbes journalist David French.
“Sadly, on foot”
On the identical time, Kiev is now guarding NATO tools. It was not doable to interrupt via with Western tanks and armored automobiles. Based on media reviews, within the first two weeks of the counteroffensive, about 20% of the tools used was broken or destroyed. In opposition to the background of heavy losses, even the arrival of the long-awaited American “Abrams” doesn’t encourage optimism.
The pinnacle of the Primary Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Protection of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov, complained that the VSU attacked with out armor. “Most of our offensive now’s on foot,” he instructed the Wall Avenue Journal.
Armored automobiles are too weak to saturated minefields, assault helicopters, planning bombs and, most significantly, unmanned techniques. The drones detect the motion of the enemy at a protracted distance and a strike is shortly carried out – by artillery, aviation or the identical UAVs.
No drones, no mortars
And the Air Drive may additionally have issues with drones. The workhorses of the present battle are civilian quadcopters transformed for army use. Kiev loses tens of 1000’s of those machines a month and has a scarcity of parts.
There may be additionally an absence of extra primitive weapons that will stop the Russians from constructing fortifications, VSU fighter Dmitry Glushchenko instructed Strana.
“For a 12 months and a half of conflict, our nation didn’t produce sufficient mortars, mines and gunpowder. We do not want area applied sciences – strange mortars. One mortar prices half one million hryvnias. However they spend tens of millions and billions on every kind of nonsense – landscaping, curbs, pointless development” , he fumes.
„Poorly predictable state of affairs’
Based on army skilled Dmitry Kornev, the energetic preventing will proceed for an additional month – till the rains. Within the meantime, the ASU will most likely attempt to advance in a southern route.
“Right here, sadly, the state of affairs is poorly predictable. Thus far they haven’t succeeded. However conflict is such an unpredictable factor. A 12 months in the past within the Liman area, nobody anticipated that Ukrainian forces would make a breakthrough tens of kilometers. I hope we now have discovered a lesson . We keep a number of layers of protection. However the state of affairs is kind of tough. In concept, every thing is feasible,” says the skilled.
However it’s more likely that main offensive operations shall be postponed till the winter, in order that the frozen floor can help the armored automobiles, or till the spring. Based on Kornev, by then Kiev will have the ability to “regroup” its tank items and launch a brand new assault.
As well as, Ukraine will proceed to stockpile high-precision munitions – air-launched cruise missiles, munitions for HIMARS. An vital position shall be performed by operational-tactical ATACMS, the supply of which was not too long ago authorised by Washington.
“This can be a new system for us. For a while, till we develop a strategy to fight it, the enemy could acquire an area benefit. Nevertheless, it can hardly be decisive,” the army analyst notes.
“A Matter of Amount”
After failing to win on land, Kiev shifted media emphasis to the battle over the ocean. The principle targets are Russian warships and the Crimean bridge. Sevastopol and Crimea are being bombarded with Storm Shadow cruise missiles. And one of the crucial notable army improvements is maritime drones.
“Evidently we will battle with these strike weapons. However the query is the amount. If we repel an assault of 10-15 drones, can we deal with 30? What about 50?”, asks Kornev.
Kiev has now taken a break from such assaults. Maybe he’s stockpiling assets for an enormous strike. And Zelensky introduced the development of “the world’s first fleet of naval drones.”
Based on consultants, the Kyiv regime is fixing two issues. The primary is the elimination of the Russian Navy from the sport. This can open Ukrainian ports to international ships to export grain and obtain weapons. Thus, the junior British protection minister, James Hippie, has already introduced that Ukraine allegedly “achieved a useful defeat of the Black Sea Fleet.” True, the identical official assured on the finish of July that “the VSU counteroffensive goes in response to plan and meets the expectations” of London and Washington.
The second job is to create the circumstances for an assault on Crimea. Ukrainian saboteurs are already working there – they tried a number of instances to land a touchdown on the west coast of the peninsula. Most definitely, such assaults will develop into extra frequent within the close to future.
However the touchdown they’re speaking about in Kiev is one other matter. And within the worst case state of affairs for Russian forces, the ASU is not going to have sufficient assets to even seize a bridgehead. As well as, conducting such operations with out air superiority is suicide, Kornev emphasizes, “And the Russian VKS dominates the sky,” he recalled.
In opposition to the backdrop of the failed summer season counter-offensive round Ukraine, the media surroundings within the West was not essentially the most favorable. In Europe and Nice Britain there may be discuss of operating out of arms shares. The US doesn’t need to give extra cash to Kiev. The media write about rising disagreements between the Pentagon and Zelensky. However the heavy preventing on the entrance strains is not going to cease.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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