In the American city of Tampa, Florida, residents are bracing for a natural disaster. Hurricane Milton will arrive there in a few hours. This is already seen as historic. The last time a hurricane hit this city was in 1921.
“Besides the fact that Milton is currently a category 5 hurricane – that is, wind speeds of over 250 kilometers per hour – the biggest danger involved is the storm surge,” notes hurricane expert Nadia Bloemendaal. The water mass is then continuously pushed up the coast. And the higher the wind speed, the higher the storm surge can become, she explains.
Houses under water
Milton is forecast to push a storm surge of 15 feet into the area around the coast. This means that houses in that area will be completely flooded. “It is also said that this is unsurvivable.” The residents must therefore be evacuated as quickly as possible.
“Another danger is that Milton will most likely bring more than 400 millimeters of precipitation,” says Bloemendaal. “Which means that flooding could still occur further inland.”
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Increasingly warmer sea water
The reason this hurricane is so strong has a lot to do with the sea water that is becoming increasingly warmer. “The warmer the water, the more nourishment there is for a hurricane. Under climate change we see that the water is warming faster and faster,” the expert explains. This ultimately makes it easier for a hurricane to reach category 4 or 5 on the Saffir and Simpson scale within a short time.
“Hurricanes need a seawater temperature of 27 degrees Celsius to grow and intensify. Milton and also Helene from two weeks ago are in the Gulf of Mexico. The water there is currently around 30 degrees Celsius,” says them. “That means that there is much more extra energy available for that hurricane, making it easier for that hurricane to grow into such a category.”
More frequent storms in the Netherlands
From tomorrow we will have to deal with ‘ex-hurricane’ Kirk in Western Europe, especially in Spain and Portugal. The forecast is that the weakened hurricane, which can now be described as a storm, will pass over the Netherlands. But for a moment it came very close. What are the chances that we will soon experience a hurricane like Milton? “That chance is actually not very great. That is because the sea water here is simply too cold,” says Bloemendaal.
A hurricane like Milton would therefore not be able to survive in this area. “But it is expected that under climate change we will experience these types of strong storms more often. This is because of the warmer sea water, because this makes it easier for hurricanes to travel further north. This also includes the area where you have that limit of 27 degrees. reached, moves up.”
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‘In principle we can handle it’
If that happens, the greatest danger, according to Bloemendaal, will be the wind and rain that such a hurricane brings. “You can then expect the impact that we actually see with every storm, so trees that can blow over and branches that can break off. Our houses themselves can withstand these wind speeds. And fortunately we have good dikes to keep out the storm surge. These must be kept up to date.”
It is mainly the rain drainage that the hurricane expert warns about. “Good drainage is very useful, both in your own garden and on a larger national scale. We have a river, but the river must be able to handle that water capacity and not be completely full. So of course it is also a matter of timing. . But in principle we can handle it.”
Hurricane Milton, soon also in the Netherlands?
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