At midnight Monday night, the war is in its 12th day. But Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen thinks we are unfortunately far from an end to the war.
In order for the war to be stopped, one of the parties must go so far militarily that there is a basis for a peace agreement. And we are probably far, far away from it at the moment, says Karlsen to TV 2.
On Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that he would not give up the bombing until Ukraine laid down its arms.
Late Sunday night, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyj, replied that even though it is the day of forgiveness, they will never forgive.
– We will not forgive the hundreds of victims and the thousands who suffer from this war. Not today, not tomorrow, never, Zelensky said late Sunday night.
– FIGHTING: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj refuses to forgive and refuses to give up. Photo: AP
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– Harder battles and bigger losses
Lieutenant Colonel Karlsen believes that Russia in the coming week will probably continue primarily its attacks on Kyiv.
– But it will probably take a long time to take Kyiv, as it is a big city. They have made great strides in the south and we expect that if they take the city of Mykolaiv that they continue west and take the city of Odessa eventually, says Karlsen.
– ESCAPE: On Sunday, Ukrainians used an improvised path under a broken bridge during the escape from the city of Irpin, near Kyiv. Photo: AP Photo / Oleksandr Ratushniak
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As for Putin’s plan, Karlsen, who is also the head teacher at the Norwegian Defense College, believes that he will continue the fighting, but that it will probably be even tougher.
– This week we may see tougher battles in and around the cities and bigger losses, says the lieutenant colonel.
– I think we can get many surprises in the future
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The head of the section for land power, Palle Ydstebø at the war school, also believes that there will be tough battles in the future.
– They continue towards Kyiv, which is the big goal for them. We see tendencies for them to move from the south, where they have made some progress to the north.
He says that the Russians are probably trying to cut off the Ukrainian forces from the rest of the country.
– The cities will be particularly vulnerable, and still exposed to artillery bombs. We can expect major civilian casualties in the future, even though there have not been real city wars yet.
– BOMBED: A man cycles for his life to get away from a factory that was bombed in Irpin, on the outskirts of Kyiv, on Sunday. Photo: AP Photo / Emilio Morenatti
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Expect many surprises
On Sunday night, the chief, Oleh Synjehubov, announced to the regional authorities that the TV towers in Kharkiv had been partially destroyed after a Russian attack. While a few hours earlier, heavy attacks were reported northwest of Kyiv.
– PRAYER: On Sunday, a Ukrainian woman prays for peace inside the Saints Peter and Paul Garrison Church in Lviv, western Ukraine. Photo: AP Photo / Bernat Armangue
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– What will the potential playoffs look like?
– I think we are very, very far from it. We have had some surprises already, says Karslen.
He adds that there is a dynamic between what is happening on the ground, what is happening internally in Russia when people see how dramatic this is and how big the losses are and what is happening in the Kremlin leadership when they see the losses, the movements internally in the country and the devastation of the Russian economy.
– So I think we can get many surprises in the future, says the lieutenant colonel.
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