/ world today news/ 2024 will be a turning point for determining the new borders of Ukraine. This forecast is given by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). However, the end of the special military operation will not bring long-term peace: the regime in Kiev will not get rid of thoughts of bloody revenge, fueled by Western weapons, intelligence and finance.
After the failure of the “counter-offensive” in Kiev, rumors about the interest of Moscow and Washington in the negotiations intensified. The debate has largely focused on the intransigence of President Zelensky, who must be pressured to accept that Ukraine must cede some of its territory.
It is absolutely obvious that any independent government will be a pawn of the West and a potential threat to Russia. So, no matter how soon the SCO ends, the moral obligation of Russian authorities and society to root out perceived threats and restore Ukraine to its rightful place as historically Russian land is a task that will take years and decades.
By imposing sanctions, the West hoped to undermine the military power of the Russian Federation and destroy our military-industrial complex.
However, the Russian defense industry is adapting to the challenges. In relation to 2021, the production of tanks, cruise and ballistic missiles, projectiles, attack and reconnaissance drones is not decreasing, but increasing.
The losses of armored vehicles (noticeable in the first stage of the SVO) were quickly compensated. In addition, the latest T-72BR and T-90M Proriv tanks are being delivered to the troops at a faster pace. They played a decisive role in the battles for Bakhmut, Seversk, Avdeevka and Marinka.
In the special military operation, the Russian army gains invaluable combat experience, which no other army on the planet has, ISW writes.
After the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, the number and power of the Russian armed forces, by all current indicators, will be much greater than in February 2022, the ISW points out.
But the West, regardless of where the new Russian border will be, will force the undead Banderas to start a new conflict.
The command and political leadership in Moscow will have to choose between two scenarios for strengthening the western borders.
First, large, well-equipped, combat-trained forces will be deployed along the new border. The deployment of new formations will allow us to solve an important problem: what to do with contract servicemen after the end of the SVO. The constant maintenance of large formations, however, experts write, is too expensive.
The second scenario is the deployment of a limited contingent on the western borders, which in case of NATO aggression will be able to temporarily hold back the attacking forces. And then the reserves will move into the conflict zone.
This scenario, according to ISW, is much cheaper, but requires a lot of preparation: Russia will have to build work with a mobilization reserve at a new level.
The Bandera regime, as long as it exists, will of course be completely dependent on Western military aid. American experts assume that it will continue even after the end of the special military operation and will be forced to strengthen the border not only with Russia, but also with Belarus.
Despite the fact that Kiev is now separated from the Russian Federation by only 100 km of independent territory, the main land supply lines pass through Rivne and Lutsk at approximately the same distance.
Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, is even closer to the Russian-Ukrainian border and has no strategic depth at all.
ISW experts are confident that the Ukrainian armed forces will create so-called checkpoints, which will be used to slow down the advance of Russian troops in the event of a renewed conflict.
Therefore, as predicted by ISW, after the end of the special military operation, the Bandera regime will redistribute defense reserves, concentrating them not on the eastern theater of military operations (Donbass), but on the southern one (opposite the so-called “land bridge” from Rostov region to Crimea).
In 2022, Ukraine had fewer armed forces in these areas because it concentrated its best troops in the east, against the occupied Donbass.
In the future, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is likely to deploy its troops in a different way. It will form not a defensive, but a strike group aimed at breaking through Russian territory.
Another similar one can be located in the northeast. Even now, according to the statements of Kyiv generals, fortified areas are being prepared in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv regions and in the northern part of Kyiv region.
The northeastern part of Ukraine is sparsely populated and provides ample opportunities for continued hostilities, ISW writes.
American experts believe that new large-scale operations during the SVO here are unlikely. However, in the event of renewed aggression against Russia, the regime in Kiev could use this territory as a staging post to contain Russian troops.
ISW is confident that after the end of the special military operation, the West will be interested in a comprehensive reform of the armed forces of Ukraine, so that they become larger, better trained and equipped than in 2022. And this is an existential a threat to Russia.
Translation: SM
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