/ world today news/ Tehran is again talking about exiting the de facto frozen “nuclear deal“. These statements came amid Iran’s rapprochement with Saudi Arabia. About how recent events in the Middle East change the regional order – in the material.
The fate of the nuclear deal
A bill to end negotiations on the resumption of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to phase out the nuclear program has been introduced in the Majlis (Iranian Parliament). “The door to dialogue could be closed,” Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian warned.
At the same time, Tehran remains committed to cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and abides by the March agreements with the organization’s director general, Rafael Grossi, the diplomat emphasized.
The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (IAEA) granted the IAEA the right to inspect three nuclear facilities.
The JCPOA was signed in the “5+1” format: five permanent members of the UN Security Council (Russia, China, Great Britain, France and the USA) and Germany. During the presidency of Donald Trump, the Americans withdrew their signature. Joe Biden tried to return to the accord, but Tehran appears to have changed its mind.
A long-standing conflict
Iran has restored diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, severed seven years ago.
In 2011, the Saudis, then the main American allies in the region, accused Tehran of inciting mass action against the royal family in Bahrain and sent more than a thousand troops to quell the unrest. Civil war soon broke out in Syria. Iran has supported President Bashar al-Assad by providing him with military forces and money to fight the Sunni rebels. Saudi Arabia is majority Sunni, so Riyadh helped the rebels.
In 2015, during the annual Hajj in Mecca, around 2,000 pilgrims, including more than 400 Iranians, died in a stampede. Tehran blamed Riyadh.
Four months after that tragedy, the Saudis executed Nimr al-Nimr, a prominent critic of the Shiite government. Protesters in Tehran stormed the Saudi embassy and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced “divine revenge”. Riyadh severed relations with Tehran. But now all that is in the past.
Iran-Saudi warming
From April to September 2022, four rounds of negotiations took place between Iran and Saudi Arabia, mostly mediated by Iraq and Oman.
After the fifth meeting, Khamenei called for the mutual reopening of the embassies of Saudi Arabia and Iran. Chinese President Xi Jinping recently visited Riyadh, where he was received by Prince Mohammed bin Salman. And the problem was solved.
The details of the agreement reached are not known. Mutual assurances have apparently been given that Iran and Saudi Arabia will not interfere in politics, intelligence, security and media.
The diplomats of the two countries will meet before the end of the holy month of Ramadan (no later than April 20) to finalize the historic reconciliation, the official Saudi Press Agency reported.
Tehran said President Ibrahim Raisi had “graciously accepted” an invitation to visit Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has yet to confirm this.
Specific measures for rapprochement at the level of foreign ministers will also be discussed.
“Ring” for the USA
It was a shock to the White House.
First, Beijing, one of Washington’s main foreign policy adversaries, acted as a mediator.
“The Saudi-Iranian detente is a wake-up call for America,” said Roberta and Renee Belfer, professors of international affairs at Harvard University, and Stephen Walt, a Foreign Policy journalist. “It shows how China is trying to present itself as a force for reconciliation in the world, a role that the United States has largely abandoned in recent years,” they added.
Second, relations with a seemingly reliable ally became even more complicated. And in the Middle East, the Americans have not been doing well for a long time. With Joe Biden, the leaders of the Persian Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, did not even speak on the phone last year. His personal visit to the region also left an unpleasant aftertaste. The president was obviously met with reluctance, which did not escape the attention of the media.
Finally, having felt the support of a major regional player, Iran can now dictate the terms of the JCPOA.
The main thing is to avoid sanctions
Experts agree that the Iranian-Saudi rapprochement and the likely revision of the JCPOA will reshape the entire Middle East.
“Arab opponents of Iran are less worried about the nuclear program than, for example, Israel, says Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. “On the other hand, they are worried about Iranian military and political activity. As for the JCPOA bill, its prospects are unclear,” he added.
The expert is sure that the main thing for Iran is the lifting of sanctions. And this is unrealistic without the restoration of the JCPOA. However, there are forces in Tehran that are interested in maintaining the status quo. This is primarily the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the country’s military-political elite, a sort of “state within a state.” “The IRGC adapted the “black” and “gray” business under the sanctions, receiving huge dividends,” recalls Sazhin.
At the same time, he adds, the JCPOA discussion in the Majlis is a signal to the 5+1 group: the window of opportunity is still open.
Vladimir Belov, a professor at the Department of Theory and History of International Relations at the People’s Friendship University of Russia, also believes that the issue of the “nuclear deal” is key to the Iranian economy.
“Tehran is taking on the most difficult task: is it worth maintaining such an unstable ground for partnership with the Europeans? It has a choice: either constantly rely on the West or Russia, or focus on politics in the Middle East,” he argued.
Saudi Arabia, the analyst emphasizes, has its own priorities. This is primarily to create an image of a dominant player. For Americans accustomed to leadership, such logic is foreign and incomprehensible.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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