/ world today news/ When the Pentagon laid out a plan more than a decade ago to spend up to $1.5 trillion over 30 years to rebuild its aging nuclear triad of bombers, missiles and submarines, it faced only one serious nuclear competitor: Russia. Now, a report by a congressionally mandated panel warns that with China expanding its nuclear arsenal and declaring Russia its “best friend,” the U.S. urgently needs the potential to both deter and, if necessary, defeat both potential opponents.
“Today’s concept of a grand military strategy is no longer viable, especially given China’s current trajectory,” US Strategic Posture Commission Chairwoman Madelyn Creedon told Congress on October 19. “The United States is on the brink of a fundamentally different global environment that we have not planned for and for which we are ill-prepared. We are facing, if you will, two nuclear adversaries, and this is unprecedented,” she emphasized to the Senate Armed Services Committee. “The nation must act now and with a sense of urgency that the Commission has not always been able to see.”
The Strategic Posture Commission was established in 2022, and its report coincides with the Pentagon’s annual report to Congress on China’s military power, which includes warnings about China’s growing provocative actions aimed at intimidating Taiwan, ambitious plans to build intercontinental ballistic missiles with a long range and expansion of its nuclear arsenal. The People’s Republic of China is modernizing, diversifying and expanding its nuclear forces faster than we predicted, Pentagon officials told reporters at a background briefing on the issue.
“Current calculations indicate that by May (2024, note) China will have more than 500 nuclear weapons in its arsenal, and in 2030 their number will exceed 1,000,” he told the forum at the end of October Atlantic Council Michael Chase (Michael Chase) – Deputy Secretary of Defense, overseeing China.
The United States and Russia each have 1,550 nuclear warheads deployed under the limits of the 2018 New START treaty, extended for five years by Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin in 2021, but both countries have thousands more warheads in reserve.
China is racing to achieve nuclear parity while using various military options to achieve Chinese President Xi Jinping’s stated goal of forcing the self-ruled, democratic island of Taiwan into reunification with mainland China before the end of the decade. Among China’s possible actions outlined in the Pentagon report are an air and sea blockade to cut off Taiwan from outside contact and force it to surrender through precision missile and air strikes against key government and military targets and even an amphibious invasion.
If China is not deterred and attacks Taiwan, the United States cannot accept that Russia will stand aside, warns former senator Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., vice chairman of the Strategic Posture Committee. “You can’t discount the possibility that either together or simply because one of these powers has started something against us, the other doesn’t see an opportunity to pursue their goals by military means as well,” Kiel said during the Senate committee hearings. “Because we’re dealing with two nuclear powers and we have to prevent a nuclear war, it’s all about deterrence.”
The Commission’s report comes to the stark conclusion that the Pentagon’s decade-long plan to rebuild the nuclear triad from scratch will not be sufficient to simultaneously deter or counter Russian and Chinese nuclear threats. “The size and composition of nuclear forces must take into account the possibility of combined aggression by Russia and China. Therefore, the United States needs a nuclear posture capable of simultaneously deterring both,” the report said.
“It is clear that we have a new threat for the first time in our history, we are facing two nuclear barons,” Kiel said in his remarks on the Senate floor. “The Russians have almost completed their modernization. They are almost done. The Chinese are well on their way to achieving their military apocalypse, and … the United States is just getting started.”
“We are at the beginning of a long process to extend the life of our nuclear warheads, to develop three entirely new delivery vehicles for the triad,” Kiel said. “But to do all of that on time, and from what we have, to create new weapons and delivery systems on the schedule that’s been proposed is going to be extremely difficult.”
“Unfortunate as it may be, Congress and the administration must accept that new systems will be late and likely to run over budget,” adds Creedon. “Unfortunately, there is a growing risk of confrontation with China, Russia, or with both forces. This includes the risk of military conflict, including the use of nuclear weapons.“
The most recent report by the Congressional Budget Office projects that spending on modernization of armaments over the next 10 years will be $756 billion, or roughly $75 billion per year. By comparison, President Joe Biden has requested $105 billion in military aid for Ukraine, Israel and border security, with $61 billion for Ukraine alone.
“Although we have not performed a cost analysis of our recommendations, it is clear that they will cost money,” the Commission’s introductory part of the report said. “We recognize the budgetary realities, but we also believe that the nation must make new investments, and U.S. leaders must communicate to the American people both the need and the urgency to rebuild our nuclear infrastructure and modernize our nuclear forces.”
Critics of any increase in US nuclear capability often argue that if a ballistic missile submarine carries enough nuclear firepower to effectively destroy the planet, everything else is overkill.
“The experience of the Cold War teaches us that an unrestricted arms race has no winners, only losers,” the Arms Control Association said in a news release. “A large-scale nuclear exchange between the United States and Russia would kill and injure more than 90 million people in the first few hours.”
“Any decision to increase the number of US strategic nuclear weapons deployed above New START levels could trigger a dangerous reaction-action cycle,” the group said. “Despite the reckless behavior of Russia and China in their pursuit of a more diverse range of nuclear weapons, the scale and diversity of the current US nuclear arsenal still exceeds that required to hold a sufficient number of adversary targets at risk to deter an adversary nuclear attack.”
But while gun control advocates play down the threat, members of Congress take the risk seriously.
“This report, first and foremost, is a bipartisan call to action,” said Sen. Roger Wicker, Republican of Mississippi and ranking member of the Armed Services Committee. We are entering the most dangerous moment for national security since World War II.”
“The Strategic Position Commission’s report clearly sets out the dangers we face today and over the next 10 years. It also reveals how much work we have to do before we can tackle these threats. We’re not even close to where we need to be,” Wicker said.
Translation: Dr. Radko Khandzhiev
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