(Sejong = Yonhap Infomax) Reporter Jinwoo Choi = There is a possibility that the CPI inflation rate has exceeded its peak.
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategy and Finance Choo Kyung-ho said at an emergency economy ministerial meeting held at the government complex in Seoul on 28: “October, oil prices will continue to fall and prices should be below the level at which we were initially wary “.
Deputy Prime Minister Chu supported the “October price peak theory”.
This is the result of taking into account the steady rise in core prices, including food prices, in a context of uncertainty in the flow of international oil prices.
The fact that electricity and gas tariffs are expected to rise was also a factor in supporting the October peak theory.
However, given the remarks made that day by Deputy Prime Minister Choo, it is estimated that ‘it expresses the fact that the price peak has already passed’.
This year’s CPI peaked at 6.3% in July. Thereafter, it showed a slight downward trend in August (5.7%) and September (5.6%).
Vice Premier Choo seems to have remarked that, even if the October inflation rate could rebound from September, the increase would not exceed the previous high.
Indeed, international oil prices, which have had the greatest impact on domestic consumer prices, are drawing a downward curve.
Considering that there is a 2-3 week delay in which international oil prices are reflected in Korea, it is necessary to look at oil prices in September.
In September, the Dubai crude oil spot price was $ 91 (closed price), down sharply from August ($ 96) and July ($ 103). Even in October, Dubai’s oil price remained stable at around $ 90.
Even within the government, not everyone agreed with Chu’s October peak theory.
Han Hoon, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, estimated in an audit by the National Assembly’s Planning and Finance Committee on the 17th that “Realistically, July is probably the highest month.”
When Yonhap Infomax recently asked eight domestic and foreign financial institutions to predict consumer price inflation in October, the average was 5.65%.
The National Bureau of Statistics expects to announce the trend in consumer prices for October on November 2.
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This article was posted at 09:21, two hours earlier, on the Infomax financial information terminal.
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