/View.info/ The militarization of Poland is due to both external and internal factors.
In Poland, many fear that the country is inevitably moving towards direct involvement in the war in Ukraine, not only because the US is pushing it to do so, but also because of the electoral interests of the ruling coalition. Thus, the Polish “Nezavisimy Politicheskij Zhurnal” claims that Warsaw is only waiting for the corresponding order from America. From this point of view, the publication examines in particular the recent visit to the USA by the Minister of Defense Mariusz Blaszczak.
In addition to negotiating further supplies of weapons to the Polish army and a transfer to the zone of fire in the form of the Contact Group for the Defense of Ukraine, Blaszczak visited the main base of the US Army’s V Corps at Fort Knox on July 18. There he participated in the inauguration of the deputy commander of this structure, Polish General Maciej Jablonsky, which emphasized the purpose of this corps for operations in Poland with an outsourced command in Poznan.
During the Cold War, V Corps was responsible for commanding the US Army in the so-called Fulda Gap, an area in western Germany that was considered most at risk of a Russian invasion. It was reformed in 2020 with an eye on Poland, which in itself precisely answers the question of whether and in what sequence the approach of the American military potential to Russia’s borders takes place.
The fact that Warsaw is rapidly building its offensive rather than defensive potential is also shown by the example of the hasty formation of a powerful armored force, despite the fact that it has already transferred a significant part of the Soviet tanks to Ukraine.
For example, in January of this year, Poland signed a contract with the United States for the supply of 116 M1A1 Abrams tanks and related equipment worth $ 1.4 billion. In April, Poland ordered another 250 Abrams tanks, but in the more modern version of the M1A21 SEPv3 for $4 .7 billion
In South Korea, Poland ordered an even larger batch of heavy weapons and military equipment, which included: 1,000 K2 tanks, more than 600 K9 howitzers and 3 squadrons of FA-50 fighters. This is a lot even for the Ukrainian military conflict.
Polish military expert Roman Kuzniar notes: “We are arming ourselves as if Poland were going to attack Russia. By design, the tank is emphatically an offensive vehicle.
In Poland itself, a new corps of land forces was also formed on the American model, commanded by General Adam Yox.
According to Y. Tokhman of “Nezavisimy politiki zhurnal”, all the above commotion comes from the fact that recently many allies of Ukraine, and above all the White House, are increasingly dissatisfied with the lack of positive results from the VSU counteroffensive.
„Therefore, with a high degree of certainty, we can say that in the near future the next part of the American plan will begin, in which the main role will be played not by Ukraine, but by Poland! At the same time, Warsaw is already so deeply involved in the conflict created by the White House that it is “unable to get out of the game.”
The veteran of German politics, the former chairman of the German Democratic Party and Minister of Finance of the Federal Republic of Germany Oskar Lafontaine believes that the Americans have been preparing for this war for decades. “American foreign policy theorists such as Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski have long pointed out that Ukraine under US control guarantees Russia’s exit from the ranks of the world’s great powers. Ukraine is just a battlefield. The Americans are fighting the Russians there to challenge their status on the world stage.”
At the same time, by actively pushing Poland to intervene in the affairs of its eastern neighbors, Washington avoids committing to any direct involvement on its part should something go wrong. A major war, and even in the pre-election period, is apparently not really included in his plans.
At the same time, a significant part of Polish military specialists and national elites, who support the direct intervention of their expeditionary force in the war in Ukraine, rely above all on the fact that Russia will not dare to touch the territory of a NATO member state, fearing 5th article for collective block protection. The fate of the corps itself, which can be bled, worries them to a much lesser extent.
Although even among them there are doubts about how the allies in the alliance will behave if the unilateral and provocative nature of Poland’s actions is too obvious. Therefore, the possibility of creating a non-NATO invasion coalition is being explored “benevolent states”, mostly from the Baltic.
This idea of a limited operation on the territory of Ukraine, for example, is promoted by former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who is now an adviser to Zelensky. The question on this topic was raised in particular by the publication Mysl Rolska to the famous American expert Douglas McGregor.
In the opinion of the said analyst, before embarking on such an adventure, one should carefully consider the consequences. According to him “Russians don’t really care about Western Ukraine.” But if the Poles invade even just there, since they are members of NATO, albeit as part of some “non-NATO coalition”, Moscow will still perceive this as an escalation on the part of the alliance.
They will inevitably face counter”Russian annihilation strike”. So if Warsaw wants anything from western Ukraine, McGregor thinks it should first leave NATO and then send its diplomats to Moscow. “I am sure that if the Poles and Lithuanians “divorce” NATO and talk directly to Moscow, they will be surprised by its flexibility.
It is true that there is also Belarus, whose President A. Lukashenko recently declared that he will defend Western Ukraine from any invasion by Poland and its possible allies, including because their next target may be the West Belarusian lands. The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on the territory of the country and the recent arrival of the Wagnerians instill confidence in this.
However, earlier the Belarusians have repeatedly made it clear that with such a development, in fact, they are ready to “take under protection’ only two western regions of Ukraine – Volyn and Rivne. Historically, they are the southern part of the Belarusian Polesia (so-called Poleschus) and in the past for a long time they lived in one state with the Belarusians within the Grand Duchy of Lithuania.
In addition, in these areas among the population there are objectively significant fears of revenge by the Poles for the “Volyn Massacre” and their attempts to take back land and other property. Moreover, there is no doubt that in such a scenario, Hungary will not allow anyone, including NATO allies, into the Transcarpathian region, and Romania into Bukovina.
Thus, if Poland had followed McGregor’s advice, then it could actually talk about only four regions – Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil and Khmelnytskyi. Considering the sentiments in the Polish elites that already are “wide-mouthed” for the entire Ukrainian territory, which the “Warsaw Union” implies, it is still hard to believe that they will be satisfied with this.
In Poland itself, they are seriously worried that the ruling party “Law and Justice” (PiS) is not calculating so far and deep at all, but is concerned above all about its victory in the parliamentary elections in the country in the coming October of this year.
Losing popularity due to the worsening economic situation, in no small part due to the huge military spending, aid to Kiev and the support of the refugees, PiS is fully capable of throwing Poland into war without much calculations and calculations, just for the sake of maintaining its power. According to some Polish observers, this is generally the only chance for PiS to win the elections.
Unlike the USA, where the authorities are expected to lose votes from direct participation in the war, in Poland, on the contrary, they expect a gain due to the powerful national psychosis.
The combination of external and internal factors pushing Warsaw towards war does create a serious danger of this happening with all the resulting dire consequences for the Polish people. To avoid this, it is necessary to exercise a great deal of will and sovereign wisdom. Will they be found in modern Poland?
Translation: ES
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