Russia can find ways to intervene in Finland’s NATO debate, according to the Finnish security police Supo. Video of missiles on their way to the Finnish border, planes snagging Finnish airspace and blocked Finnish websites can be such attempts.
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While most Norwegians are on their way to Easter mode on Wednesday afternoon, Finland starts a short and intense NATO debate.
Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto will later on Wednesday give the government’s response to how Finland’s security has changed acutely since Russia’s attack on Ukraine on 24 February.
– Now the people are asking what will happen if 100,000 soldiers should suddenly be on our border. Every responsible government must have an answer to this, Haavisto said in a VG interview in Brussels on April 7.
Meet in Stockholm
On Wednesday, the Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin will also be in Stockholm and meet her Swedish colleague Magdalena Andersson. The two close neighbors in the Nordic countries are coordinating their immediate plans while the war rages in Ukraine.
But it is not at all certain that the conclusion of the NATO debate will be the same in Finland and Sweden.
The popular support for an application for NATO membership is significantly greater in Finland. In Sweden, it is first and foremost Andersson’s party Socialdemokraterna that vacillates between continued freedom of alliance, or a NATO application.
Can go their separate ways
– There may be different decisions. It is not at all certain that we will come to the same conclusion, but we try to follow each other closely, be transparent and share information and assessments, said Sweden’s Foreign Minister Ann Linde last week.
In Russia’s ultimatum against NATO and the United States last autumn, Russia demanded that NATO closes its doors to new member states. Russia has also threatened political and military consequences against Finland and Sweden if it joins NATO.
– Finland must be prepared for possible influence campaigns from Russia, said Antti Pelttari, the Chief of the Finnish Security Police Supo when he presented his annual threat assessment.
Video and computer attacks
Three incidents in the last few days may indicate that this pressure on Finland is underway:
** Monday night, a video of Russian vehicles allegedly on their way to Finland was posted on Twitter. The film shows the transport of the Russian coastal missile system K-300P Bastion Coastal near the border town of Viborg, and where the camera focuses on a road sign in the direction of Helsinki.
But both Finnish military authorities and the US Department of Defense has, according to Finnish radio, denied that Russian military equipment is on its way to the border.
** On Friday, the websites of both the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs were in Helsinki affected by so-called overload attacks.
** Earlier Friday, the Finnish defense announced that a Russian state-owned aircraft must have violated Finnish airspace outside the coastal town of Porvoo. It is said to have happened at the same time as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj was speaking to the Finnish parliament.
30 pages
According to Foreign Minister Haavisto, the document that goes from the government to the Finnish parliament on Wednesday is only 30 pages long:
– Half of the document will describe Finnish foreign policy and security. The rest is about energy and food security, and about the protection of the civilian population, which is also affected by the current conflict, he explained in the VG interview.
But there is no recommendation from the government in the NATO issue, he emphasized:
“As foreign minister, I will follow the line that is decided in parliament, and then in government,” Haavisto said.
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