The 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) to respond to the climate crisis will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan for 12 days from the 11th (local time). While there are concerns that the COP will lose momentum as former President Donald Trump, who pledged to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, succeeds in re-election, there are also predictions that it will not be able to change the trend of decarbonization.
About 40,000 people from 198 parties will attend COP29, which is being held to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees. Korea will also participate in negotiations between countries, with a government delegation led by Minister of Environment Kim Wan-seop as the chief representative. The Ministry of Environment explained, “We plan to serve as a bridge between developed and developing countries to reach agreement on major negotiation agendas.”
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The positions of developed and developing countries differ on the scale of climate resources.
The biggest issue at this year’s general meeting is ultimately money. This is because a new climate finance goal (NCQG) must be set after 2025. It is expected that fierce negotiations will take place between countries over the size of financial resources goals and the scope of donor countries.
Developing countries, including the host country, Azerbaijan, argue that developed countries must fulfill their obligations under the convention, saying that more than 1 trillion dollars (1,400 trillion) of climate resources are needed for climate response and adaptation. On the other hand, developed countries are countering that the scope of donor countries should be expanded so that more countries, including China, should contribute money, and private finance should also be included. The Ministry of Environment said, “It appears that there will be difficulties in the process of agreeing on specific targets or structures for financial resources.”
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Concerns about Trump’s re-election casting a “big shadow over the Baku summit”
Former President Trump, who was re-elected, cannot participate in this general meeting because his term has not yet begun. The Biden administration will participate in the negotiations on behalf of the United States. However, there are observations that developed countries, including the United States, will be passive in expanding climate finance in the aftermath of Trump’s re-election. This is because even if climate financing goals are set, there is a high possibility that the Trump administration will not implement them.
Trump has long defined global warming as a hoax and rebelled against the international community’s climate response policies. When he was president, he declared withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, and during this election process, he shouted “Drill Baby Drill” and said he would increase oil and gas drilling. Carbon Brief, a British climate research group, said in a report released early this year that if former President Trump wins the presidential election, America’s carbon emissions will be 4 billion tons by 2030 compared to current President Biden’s plan. ) It was predicted that it could increase further. 4 billion tons is equivalent to the annual emissions of the European Union and Japan.
Alex Scott, climate diplomacy strategist at international think tank ECCO, said, “Trump has described climate change as a ‘Chinese hoax’ and has supported fossil fuels,” adding, “It is clear that the elected Trump administration will cast a large shadow over the Baku summit.” “I do,” he said.
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“Change cannot be stopped”… Possibility of climate leadership reorganization
Some argue that the impact of Trump’s re-election will not be as significant as expected. This is because, unlike during Trump’s first term, the clean energy market has grown significantly, so the trend of a decarbonized economy will not slow down. “The outcome of this election will be a major blow to global climate action, but it cannot and will not stop the transformation underway to decarbonize the economy and achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement,” said Christiana Figueres, former Secretary-General of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. “It is,” he said.
There are also predictions that climate response leadership will be reorganized, centered around China and European countries. “The world will increasingly look to China to take a leading role in climate action as the United States falls behind,” said Betty Wang, senior climate program director at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
Meanwhile, Minister Kim, Korea’s chief representative, plans to reveal the status of carbon neutrality policy implementation and his will to establish an advanced ‘2035 National Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal (NDC)’ in his keynote speech at the high-level meeting on the 19th and 20th. Minister Kim said, “I hope that this general meeting will promote global climate action, increase motivation, and advance in solidarity toward the 1.5 degree goal, and our country will also act responsibly as a member of the international community.”
Kwonpil Cheon (feeling@joongang.co.kr)
