There is no doubt that the atmosphere, ocean and land are warmed by human activity, says the landmark climate report. And it is too late to stop some destructive consequences.
Many climate changes can no longer be stopped or reversed, says the 1300-page UN report on the impact of human activities on the environment, predicting how the climate will change in the future.
Experts in large-scale work predict an irreversible rise in sea levels, which will make “floods of the century” a common phenomenon, as well as more frequent phases of extreme heat. Correspondent.net tells the details.
The planet is heating up dangerously, only man is to blame
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has published a massive report on climate change and the meteorological state of the planet, which warned that many climate changes are irreversible.
In the course of the work, the group of researchers analyzed more than 14 thousand scientific papers published over the past ten years. Over 240 scientists from 66 countries took part in the training.
The main conclusion of the UN experts is that the responsibility for climate change lies entirely with humans.
In recent years, scientists have been able to establish a clear link between global warming and specific severe weather events. The report says many of the world’s new deadliest temperature extremes “would be extremely unlikely without human impact on the climate system.”
Greenhouse gas emissions markedly exacerbate some droughts, rainstorms and floods. Tropical cyclones have likely become more intense over the past 40 years, and this shift cannot be attributed to natural variability alone, the report says.
Scientists note that climate change today has no analogues in the history of mankind. It is likely that the last decade is the hottest on the planet in 125 thousand years.
The world’s glaciers are melting and retreating at a rate “unprecedented in at least two thousand years.” Levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have not been this high for at least two million years.
States have delayed reducing emissions from fossil fuels for so long that they will no longer be able to stop the increase in global warming over the next 30 years, although there is still a small window to prevent the most dire future, the report says.
In 2015, the UN adopted the Paris Climate Agreement, which proclaimed the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preventing the average annual temperature on the planet from rising by more than two degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels by 2100 and taking measures to keep warming within 1 , 5 degrees.
Thousands of victims. Earth is going through its hottest period
The data from the new report show that this goal can only be achieved if emission reductions are started now.
To assess future performance, experts considered five scenarios:
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Carbon dioxide emissions will begin to decline rapidly right now and reach zero soon after 2050.
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Emissions will start to decline slowly and reach zero by 2075.
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Emissions will remain at the current level for the next 50 years, after which they will begin to decline.
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Emissions will continue to increase and will double by 2100.
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Emissions will increase rapidly and will double by 2050.
The analysis showed that in all five cases, by 2040, global temperature will rise by 1.5 degrees, with warming in the Arctic and Antarctica going faster than on the planet on average. In the fifth scenario, by 2050, ice in Arctic waters in September will become an extremely rare phenomenon.
If the first – the most positive – scenario comes true, the temperature rise after 2050 will stop (but it will not drop significantly either). It will be possible to keep within the framework set by the Paris Climate Agreement under the second scenario – in this case, the temperature by 2100 will rise by 1.8 degrees.
In the other three cases, the average temperature will continue to rise much faster. The worst of the five scenarios considered in the report would result in an average temperature rise of 4.4 degrees by 2100, compared with the level of the late 19th century.
The rise in sea level, experts predict, will not stop in any case.
Even in the most positive of the scenarios, it will rise from the 1900 level by about 0.3 meters by 2100 and by 0.5 meters by 2150.
In a negative scenario, by the end of the century, the water level will rise by almost a meter. In the same way, in all the considered scenarios, experts came to the conclusion that humanity will not be able to stop the melting of glaciers at the planet’s poles and on mountain peaks – in the coming centuries it can only be slowed down.
The continuation of global warming is fraught with an even more severe “swing” between drought and floods, cold and hell.
Extreme temperatures are observed more and more often, but the axis of this “swing” has shifted to the red part of the thermometer, observations show. Since 1950, episodes of unprecedented heat have increased in frequency and intensity, while the cold has passed in both.
And even if global warming can be kept within one and a half degrees, the frequency of weather cataclysms will be unprecedented by historical standards, scientists warned.
The conclusions of the report will play a key role at the COP-26 environmental summit under the auspices of the United Nations, which will be held in November in Glasgow. The Summit is seen as a key event in the field of international climate cooperation.
Almost all countries of the world have signed the report. What is written in the document is now a consensus not only of the scientific community, but also of the world community as a whole.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said: “The evidence is irrefutable: greenhouse gas emissions are choking our planet and endangering billions of people. Global warming affects every region on Earth, many changes are becoming irreversible. We must act decisively to prevent a climate catastrophe.”
Guterres noted that if humanity joins forces now, it can prevent a climate catastrophe.
“But as the report makes clear, there is no time for delay and no room for excuses. I count on government leaders and all stakeholders to ensure the success of COP-26,” he tweeted.
Note that scientists are increasingly talking about the fact that the Paris Climate Agreement, which was signed by almost all countries (but few have started to implement it) is not enoughto stop global warming.
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