(St. Petersburg, Russia) Daily reports on the war give way in the Russian media to discussions of military and political prospects. Containing opinions that diverge considerably from the official discourse of the government, they deserve to be better known, because they influence public opinion and, perhaps, the decisions of the Kremlin.
Thus, Daniil Kotsubinsky, of the online daily Fontanka.ru, opposes “war until victory”. “Historical experience shows that only compromise can lead to reconciliation; otherwise, we continue to play Russian roulette, with a charge that is nuclear. Sergei Peresleguine, from the same daily, sheds light on the technical intelligentsia whose mood, unlike the rather depressed artistic circles, is said to be on the rise. Import substitution policies allow engineers to use their long frustrated talents. “For years, they waited for an opportunity to work, rather than being told that it was easier to buy from Siemens. »
Western sanctions, while nullifying this “simple” option, weaken the power of the comprador bourgeoisie. Once influential Anatoly Chubais, the architect of the privatization of state-owned enterprises in the 1990s, was quoted this week as having advocated at the time for the closure of Uralvagonzavod, the country’s major arms and rolling stock manufacturer . “We can always buy tanks and wagons from abroad,” he said then. Chubais emigrated with his family shortly after the start of the war in Ukraine. A few days ago, in order to emphasize the importance of military industries, Putin celebrated the 80e anniversary of the breakthrough of the siege of Leningrad by visiting a defense factory which is currently operating 24/7. This factory was repairing tanks throughout the siege which lasted 900 days.
In this context, the sale of hydrocarbons and metals to the West causes controversy. Peresleguine argues that they should only be sold in exchange for strategic materials such as microchips and motors.
Others, like Sergueï Mikheïev, active on television and in the blogosphere, consider these sales as incomprehensible since these metals and this oil are used “to produce tanks and supply them with fuel in order to fight our army”.
He also criticizes shortcomings in Russian military strategy, including the continued supply of Western arms and ammunition to Ukrainian forces that Russian forces “cannot or will not” interrupt. If the reasons are military, that is to say the impossibility of overcoming the air defenses of Ukraine, he sees in it the incompetence of the Russian forces. “If we can’t overcome Ukraine’s defences, how could we ever face those of NATO countries?” If the reasons are political, they are, for him, immoral. “There can be no justification for allowing a continued flow of Western weapons that kill our soldiers and officers, especially in the context of a mobilization that tears men out of normal life. He adds that he’s been asking these questions for months, still unanswered.
Sergei Markov is a former Russian parliamentarian who was part of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. He spent time at the National Democratic Institute in Washington and was close to President Putin. Markov believes that Russia has taken several steps towards defeat. “I consider the results of this year to be catastrophic. […] If we suffer a defeat in the conflict with Ukraine, the war may spill over into the territory of Russia, the country may be occupied and dismembered, which will lead to the loss of statehood. »
Naive trust
The mistakes made would be both military and political. Markov deplores the Kremlin’s naive confidence in the Minsk agreements. These documents, as their co-signatories Angela Merkel and François Hollande now acknowledge, were never intended to bring peace to Donbass, but rather to give Ukrainian forces a break and rearm them in order to reintegrate Donbass. by force. Internally, too, Markov said in an interview, the power structure is unreliable. “If the elites have not fled to the side of the enemy, this does not mean that they are consolidated to fight this war. True, they do not engage in sabotage, but many of them believe that this is not their war,” adds Markov.
Conservative philosopher Alexander Dugin sums up the current situation in dramatic terms: “It’s like a sleeping person fighting wolves. They bite her, but she still doesn’t know if she is dreaming or if the wolves are real. This half-sleep in which our society and our state find themselves makes a monstrous impression. »
These criticisms coming from what could be called “the patriotic opposition” constitute an enlightening aspect of Russian society struggling with the war in Ukraine.
* Mr. Rabkin is the author of Judaism, Islam and modernities (March 2022, Editions I)
